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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Koligman who wrote (74874)	1/17/2008 9:50:20 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77399

So, what's your "trading" process? How do you decide when to buy and sell?

To: John Koligman who wrote (74874)	1/17/2008 1:24:27 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77399

Whew. John, this market is breathtaking, watching it go down. I'm getting so tempted to buy a few big names: CSCO, GE, maybe an ETF like GEX. SPWR is looking alot cheaper but still incredibly expensive. I wonder if we'll see the first day's trading price of $50 on SPWR again? Wouldn't surprise me. I think solar stocks were in a clear bubble with unsustainable PE, especially given the silicon supply crunch, which will take a few years to remediate. So an 60% knock off the high wouldn't be unreasonable. For SPWR, that could mean going from $140 down to $56. Given the blood in the streets, CSCO is holding up ok. Not great, but not horrible either. Let's see. From it's high of our $34, it's lost $9. That's a 26% haircut. So the question of the year is: to catch a falling knife or not to catch a falling knife? Experience tells me that 2008 could be a bad year and that what we've seen in Jan could be only the beginning of a longer, slower slide for the rest of the year. Several factors in favor of this opinion: * Bernanke unwilling to act fast on rate revisions...or unable to because of rising inflation...stagflation * sub-prime and housing messes taking longer than most think to unwind so we know the full extent of the losses * election year lame duck President and grid-locked Congress: Reps want to cut taxes and Dems want to do ST spending to stimulate the economy * uncertainty over who new President will be could keep a check on any rebound in 2008 * the old adage of "as the first week of Jan goes, so goes Jan...as Jan goes, so goes the year"...that bodes ill for the market in 2008 So WELCOME TO 2008! This will be a consolidation and waiting game year. For LTBHers that means buying consistently as stocks go down and for John, that means enjoying the wild swings in both directions we're going to see. P.S. You know what this market has done to me? I was scheduled to retire in early 2011 and now it's looking more like early 2012. Bummer. I hope 2009 and 2010 are good years so that I can get back on track! :)