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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (95827)	1/17/2008 3:38:25 PM
From: nrg_crisis	Respond to of 206209

World Oil Output Is Declining Slower Than Expected, Cambridge Energy Says (snip) Peter Jackson, oil industry activity director for Cambridge Energy Research and author of the report, said in a statement today. "This new analysis provides the basis for more confidence about the future availability of oil." the study's authors, Boston-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates, argue that their assessment supports a generally rosy view of the industry's future No way! Pollyanna Energy Research Associates with another rosy supply forecast? Whodathunkit? In the DOE-commissioned Hirsch report on peak oil a couple years ago, CERA and Shell were roughly tied for the most optimistic forecast (discounting Michael Lynch’s prediction of “never”) of how long we have before crude peaks: Table II-1. Projections of the Peaking of World Oil Production Projected Date Source of Projection Background & Reference 2006-2007 Bakhitari, A.M.S. Iranian Oil Executive 11 2007-2009 Simmons, M.R. Investment banker 12 After 2007 Skrebowski, C. Petroleum journal Editor 13 Before 2009 Deffeyes, K.S. Oil company geologist (ret.) 14 Before 2010 Goodstein, D. Vice Provost, Cal Tech 15 Around 2010 Campbell, C.J. Oil company geologist (ret.) 16 After 2010 World Energy Council World Non-Government Org. 17 2010-2020 Laherrere, J. Oil company geologist (ret.) 18 2016 EIA nominal case DOE analysis/ information 19 After 2020 CERA Energy consultants 20 2025 or later Shell Major oil company 21 No visible peak Lynch, M.C. Energy economist 22 projectcensored.org I find CERA’s predictions of crude’s peak useful as an indicator of the strength of the arguments against peak oil, and I don’t find them at all convincing. I'd love to be an oil pollyanna too, but geology keeps trumping my happy thoughts. nrg