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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (8676)	1/18/2008 2:56:25 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

You know guys.. when people are willing to accept 2.43% yield on their 10 year government bonds, there's only one way to turn that around.. The government has to issue more supply of T-bills.. IE: fiscal stimulus.. IE: deficit spending.. IE: national debt.. The demand for government paper just far exceeds the available supply.. contrary to popular opinion. Hawk

To: John Pitera who wrote (8676)	1/18/2008 8:24:18 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi John, I've got two thoughts here: 1)I was waiting for a test on 1358 SPX.As you note it slipped right through it. That leaves me with a friday and monday v bottom reversal - with a possible retest in February/March. This gives us some need for a quick and substantial bounce by Tuesday (Monday a holiday). 2)If these ranges don't give us a bounce in here,we've got a 1291 ish 200 week moving average. with next supports going back to late 05 (1168.) and early 06 (1219). I think JP Morgan and GE have just shown us that financials can and do survive when old established basics are adhered to. The sliced and diced newly created investment vehicles that repackage poor credit is just smearing more $hit on the window. To relabel it and sell it for the making of fees - still leaves you in the end of the day with a hand full of crap. To those who used better judgement they might get 40% BACK.For those who just whored up the market maybe 20% and or nothing. It all depends on how low in the gutter they slithered. At any rate,no sympathy from me. Much like when Worldcom collapsed - it left the good the solid still in the game to absorb the void created by their collapse. This is our system and it is our greatest strength. The fact that we have a collapse and a purge is the cure. During these purge events we have the single best opportunity to take advantage of market mispricing. These are the moments that made Billionaires out of clear capitalized thinking of Warren Buffet and Carl Icahn. Be aggressive,be conservative,and buy the quality that has been tarnished by the crooks. These are wealth defining moments. I'm tense,I'm getting up earlier in the morning,I'm nervous, and I'm constantly reminding myself that these times are fantastic opportunities,that if done right will make us all very rich. JMHO Bob It is imperative to keep your powder dry here. If you catch a knife and get underwater - take the short loss and be ready to buy again. Last but most important study your stock and know how it has had final shakeouts in the past. Fast final shakeout on big volume or quiet sideways on low volume. The MM has a technique and over the long run - he'll show it again and again. Scalp and stay alive until you see them puking to sell at market and/ or blood in the streets.

To: John Pitera who wrote (8676)	1/18/2008 12:08:03 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 33421

John, not so sure. The SPX as of today has done a 50 % retrace of the last complete 5 wave pattern up, which started in July of '04. That is why I've had a near 1300 target. I think we hit something solid today, am looking for a retest now, followed by hard bounce. The last time this happened was in 1998, when the SPX did an exact 50 % correction of the previous complete 5 wave pattern up, which had ran from mid '96 to mid '98. A lot of folk are always fibbing back to the bottom of something. I think it more correct to be able to do some wave analysis and fib back to an hopefully correct beginning, which in my opinion is wave related (but not always clear). From the bullish side then this correction would most likely be a '4' correction off the early '03 bottom. Interestingly enough the '98 correction was also a '4'. Since this is a correction of major degree it 'may' be deep but must be decently long in time. My suspicion is this is just the first half or 'A' completing now. I have another theory, postulated from observation, and have not read it elsewhere. It is definitely not a rule. It is that basically in a larger 5 wave pattern, at least one of the two major corrections must be reasonably deep. If this is a '4', the '2' was in 2004. The '2' was long enough but not very deep.