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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (367337)	1/18/2008 5:01:19 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574326

He needs to go .75........he's way behind the curve. With inflation over 4% the bond market ain't gonna like it. That 4% inflation is in the rearview mirror. Going forward, there is every indication that prices will flatline or come down. In fact, even the feds agree that deflation is more a worry at this point than inflation. For starters, crude appears to have peaked at $100 and has fallen 10% from that top. As more indications of a global/US slowing of growth appear, I expect the speculation in oil will continue to deflate and crude prices will continue to fall albeit slowly. As we all know, housing prices have been falling. Meanwhile, as I have said in other posts, metal commodities have been trending down or moving sideways for most of the past year: kitcometals.com Adding further evidence of a commodity price slowdown, there is the Baltic Dry Index that measures global shipping rates. It is well off its high: investmenttools.com In fact, there are many indications that inflation is not the problem. Here are some of the metrics I am following: indices such as SOXX, SMH, OIH, BKX, XHB, HGX, and XAU, the Phillie manu. index, the NY manu. index, the Chicago ISM, Michigan's consumer confidence index, jobless claims data, business inventories, oil and natural gas inventories, leading economic indicators, housing starts and housing sales......the list is a long one. Every one of those metrics is either down or moving sideways......and that includes XAU/Gold and the oil services sector. The only one bullish at all is business inventories. In the last few months, businesses have been cutting back inventories and that bodes well for any future economic recovery. And thanks in no small part to computers, that is just one of the ways we, as a country, are managing the economy better than we did 10, 15, 20 years. Add to all of that, the Chinese Summer Olympics which most believe will result in a sizeable slow down of their building boom and its demand for commodities, inflation is not likely to be an issue on which the feds should be focused. That's not to say they should stop looking for signs.......there is always the chance the the 1970s will do a replay where we have a slowdown and inflation at the same time.....but its not terribly likely. So cutting the fed rate is what we need. What that will do....and I know this is venal sin.... a sin against God, a sin against the American democracy, a sin against all that is good and holy...........it will encourage many people to refi their loans. Think about it.......millions upon millions of people will be refi-ing their loans, saving $2-3-4 hundred or more per month......savings that can be used to buy products....consumer goods or services.......or to throw into a savings account. And all the fees banks make on those refis will help to offset their losses in subprime crap and their loss of new house loans because housing is still in the toilet. That is why the feds have to cut and cut back big.....and they should have been doing it back in Oct. That is why they are behind the curve IMO. And its why Cramer is screaming his fool head off seemingly to no avail. And what worries me the most is that Bernanke looks and behaves like he's scared. The last thing we need in the FOMC is a brownie/weenie. He'd better buy some big ones over the weekend because he/we are in for a bumpy ride over the next few months.