Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChanceIs who wrote (100825)	1/19/2008 9:33:40 AM
From: Travis_Bickle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

"massively positive probability of substantial profit within 3 years." He may well be right but very few people are patient enough to hang in there that long.

To: ChanceIs who wrote (100825)	1/19/2008 10:20:24 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Those book values aren't even marked to market at today's prices yet, let alone the potential declines ahead when all the foreclosure inventory gets forced onto the market. Good idea, but still pretty early in the game. Remember all those folks talking about how things wouldn't get too bad as long as employment held up? Well, how much longer do you think that will be the case? I do think the stocks could get a bump out of pure sector rotation. Money fleeing tech and industrials could play the interest-rate sensitive game. But over the long haul, a reasonable expectation for those that don't go bankrupt might be to retest the prices from the start of the bubble back in 2000. `BC

To: ChanceIs who wrote (100825)	1/19/2008 12:11:54 PM
From: KyrosL	Respond to of 306849

Another thing different from 1990/91 is that in the next few years the boomers will start retiring in large numbers and attempting to downsize from their current homes.

To: ChanceIs who wrote (100825)	1/19/2008 1:28:24 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Respond to of 306849

>>>See especially the graphic comparing Price/Book 1990 and now. I ain't buying because in 1990 there was no severe recession - such as we have just entered. You know - the elephant in the living room.<<< that is a very good point we've entered into a 'perfect storm' environment for the consumer 1. house values sinking (check) 2. 401k/IRA's plummeting (check) 3. Unemployment rising (check) those 3 items really signal a death knell, imo, to consumer confidence if we don't get a snap back rally on apple's earnings on tues, we're looking at a crash....even if we get a snap back rally, i believe that rally will get sold, either way we're screwed and btw, if we get this kind of across the board bidding war for consumer 'votes' at 5% unemployment, (still historically low) imagine the kind of shenanigans we'll see coming from the politicians if it spikes above that? geezus. oh and let's not forget the bulk of the mortgage resets are just beginning this, hopefully anyone with a salvageable mortgage (meaning adequate equity and income) has and is refinancing to stem that tide the icing on the cake is this is an election year... oh the humanity... patron please post your hindenburg , will ya?