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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (90622)	1/20/2008 3:55:40 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The article you posted makes the case -- as a thousand before it have -- that we in the US are in trouble, and that our asset prices will fall and our economy will slow. Everything in the article points to this -- and in every other article. It is like predicting that the sun will rise tomorrow -- nobody is disputing that. What is at issue is what happens to: 1) the dollar, and 2) growth in places like China and India. On these two key issues there is a divergence. There are many who continue to see the US as the center of the universe. I don't. China and India will build the urban infrastructure for at least 400 million more people in the next ten years or so, and those who inhabit that infrastructure will be consumers as well. This build out dwarfs the importance of the ebb and flow of the US housing market. As for the dollar, those who think this will be a prolonged period of dollar strength are smoking crack. The size and persistence of the US current account deficit will see to that -- not to mention the likelihood for an expanding federal deficit as tax receipts go off a cliff and "stimulus" is offered to the beaten down US consumer. The answer is to flee the dollar -- and commodities will continue to be a destination as competitive devaluations rage on. Ten years from now we will be well underway to seeing a quadrupling of the global consumer urban world that is springing up around us all over the planet. Trust me, if there is one thing that is not going down it is global demand. If you want to lose sleep, worry about resource wars and pollution -- and of course the daily slide of the US economy into a pit that we dug for ourselves.