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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zebra4o1 who wrote (90643)	1/20/2008 4:27:13 PM
From: glenn_a	Respond to of 110194

((Russ' blog said it all: 'Many will point the right way once the wheel is broken'.)) I REALLY appreciate Russ's analysis. Reminds me I'd due to contribute to Russ's "tip jar". :) ((And I still think people don't get the seriousness of the situation. When you reach the Minsky Moment after 20+ years of credit expansion, you don't just bounce right back in 3 months. This is not business as usual. Not your run of the mill bear market.)) I completely agree. As a corollary, I don't think that most investors appreciate the degree to which credit stability underlies financial asset prices - including myself for that matter! K-wave credit cycle busts are such generational phenomenon, that if one bases one's investing behavior on market behavior of the past 3 or 5 years, or even past 10 or 20 years for that matter, it can lead to very mistaken conclusions. At least that's what market history would seem to indicate. Perhaps this time it truly IS different. But I wouldn't bet my life savings on it. g