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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gib Bogle who wrote (90647)	1/20/2008 5:02:03 PM
From: glenn_a	Respond to of 110194

Hi Gib. I stated: "I particularly felt this in August, when he basically blew off the risks that were emerging in the asset-backed paper market. He's since changed his tune a bit" You commented: "It seems that I was wrong in thinking that he "called" the current financial crisis." If my memory serves me correctly, it wasn't that Coxe didn't appreciate there was trouble in the asset-backed paper market, the CDO market, and all that good stuff. And that he didn't see it coming. Rather, I remember a particular call in August after panic has start to set in and the credit markets for asset-backed paper was seizing up, where Coxe acknowledged the problem, but basically discounted any serious repercussions and viewed the whole thing as a buying opportunity for agriculture and commodity-related stocks. I actually remember thinking that it was rather intellectually dishonest to not point out that this could be REALLY serious, and that there was a possibility - even if only an outside chance - that this could portend a serious collapse in the global economy and pretty much ALL financial asset prices. Well, certainly over the next couple months Coxe was right in his call, but the early days of 2008 has made it clear that things are getting worse, not better. To me he still isn't being honest about the serious of the situation. Personally, I think he understands the risks are there, but chooses not to emphasize them and prefers to focus on a more benign outcome. However, I could be wrong. Perhaps he genuinely doesn't believe that agriculture and commodity-related asset prices are at risk of collapse in the face of a severe credit downturn. Anyway, best of luck in 2008. It's going to be a tricky one. glenn