Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (28024)	1/21/2008 4:14:45 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218083

I would be reluctant to bet one way or the other on the bond market. There are reasons why either a bear or bull market in bonds are possible. As an example, many failures in the corporate and municipal bond market will continue to drive a bull market in Treasuries, aka sovereign debt, although perhaps not US Treasuries depending on the direction of the US Dollar. If the Fed monetizes US Treasuries, this will drive a bull market in US Treasuries. Inflation will not be a problem if the economy is in a depression or serious recession. If the economy remained strong or later recovered and the Fed did not sell the debt back to the open market, then you would get serious inflation and seriously high interest rates. Its like I've always told Mish, its not clear to me to bet on one particular low-probability event when it is just one of many equally plausible outcomes, all dependent upon the whim of policy makers interacting with events. Although his bet on deflation is becoming more likely as things unfold. .