Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Financialsense (FSO) - Jim Puplava forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (99)	1/21/2008 6:30:14 PM
From: the navigator	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 125

I found the following from January 5 January 12 broadcasts. His meaning is not specific, but the way I read it is a 10% to 15% correction from the level at which he was broadcasting on January 5-- The DOW was around 12,796 -15% = 10876 -10% = 11516 The NASDAQ Composite was around 2505 -15% = 2129 -10% = 2254 The S&P was around 1412 -15% = 1200 -10% = 1270 From January 5 broadcast JIM: This will probably end up being a two or three bottle of wine, the five and ten bottle of wine begins in 2009. And the best way to describe what we see happening this year – and I was trying to think of an analogy, and here it is: An Oreo cookie. Dark on the outside and a creamy filling in the inside. And what I mean by that is the first quarter is we're going to see a lot of volatility, we're going to see a lot of roughness in the market, kind of what we're seeing right now with the major average is down anywhere from 3 to 5%. We may see a 10% to 15% correction in the markets. And then we're going to see monetary reflation kick in with a vengeance. .... Some other comments regarding market decline... JIM: Well, Byron Wien is known probably for the last quarter of a century of coming out with his 10 predictions at the beginning of the year. And he did it again this January. And his number one prediction is the US economy will fall into a recession in 2008. That is one that I happen to agree with. The second part is the stock market will post a 10% drop during the year; probably in the first half of the year [when] there is a correction. Something else that I agree with. ... What they are really facing is crisis level Number Two. We've got a deflating real estate market. They expect that by the time this is done we could see real estate prices deflate another 7 to 10%, so by the time the crisis is over in real estate we may have 15 to 20% price declines nationally across the country. And of course that's an average. In certain places it's going to be obviously much higher than that in places like, for example, Las Vegas, Phoenix, California, Florida – the hot real estate markets that we've seen during this real estate cycle. ... From January 12 broadcast JOHN: Yeah. But there is always that temptation, Jim. You know what if it corrects 5, 10 percent? You go “oh, boy, I need to do something” or just the converse and the stock doesn't do anything. It just sort of sits there. JIM: You know what? You sit there. I can remember we were buying oil stock in 2000, and 2001 and people were saying, “what the heck are you guys doing.” We sat there for a couple of years. But you know what, we were getting dividend yields of over 4, 4.5 and some cases we were getting 5% dividend yields at a time the Fed was slashing interest rates and taking them down to 1%, and at a time the actual stock market was actually going down. So sometimes you just have to be patient. I mean, even people that bought real estate that have made money in real estate, you don't go out and buy real estate and expect the day you buy it or the next day it's going to go up. I mean we basically sat on our oil investments for two years. But you know what, we were getting 4 and the 5% dividends and we bought them at incredible prices. But if you take a look at by doing that, not only were we compensated with dividends, but since that period of time, oil stocks have gone up almost four fold; in many cases we have some that have gone up 8 and 10 fold. And that's the concept of investing versus speculating. You buy something that's undervalued. You buy it, you hold it, and you hold it until everybody in the world wants to buy it and pay you a ridiculous price. And that's usually, you know, when you get to the end of that crazy period, that's when you unload it. But that's what I mean about investing strategically for longer term trends. [17:35]