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To: Paul Senior who wrote (58050)1/21/2008 12:25:45 PM
From: Debt FreeRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
Paul - I agree that the current market represents opportunities in a lot of areas. I am looking at ODP, OMX, M, and CAKE to name a few. Any thing specific that you are looking at?



To: Paul Senior who wrote (58050)1/21/2008 4:33:07 PM
From: SoberRespond to of 118717
 
Paul, I have seen you make good judgements about stocks over the years, but aren't you concerned that this time it actually IS " different than all the other times ".

I wish I could be more confident that the collapsing financial house of cards is over. I fear I am living thru a slow motion collapse, where the cards of only the top 4 or 5 levels have collapsed so far, and as we watch the fall, we are hoping that the broader base of the 20 or 30 lower layers are going to stop the damage.

But what if they don't. Lowering interest rates will not help the dollar. The only way the dollar has been saved in the past is by strongly RAISING interest rates. But our economy is no longer strong enough to sustain that. So lowering rates will lead to printing more money, which will lead to a weaker dollar and more inflation, which will lead to lowering rates.. print more dollars...etc etc. into an eventual death spiral...

How is the world going to return to having trust in the dollar again?

I remember hearing Warren Buffet say that he did not invest in Japan because, even though he had to only beat the 1% interest in Japan, he could not find any companies that he thought could do that safely.

If our economy is about to seriously falter, would this be the time to suggest to others to BUY stocks. This could be like buying stocks during October of 29. It took until 34 before things got much better then, and only because FDR took the HUGE and BOLD step creating fiat money and allowing politicians to run the printing presses.

It has taken a long time, but is this the final outcome of his decision; a total lack of trust in money that is not backed by anything but a complicated, dense and dusty tapestry of debt?

Maybe greed will step in and maybe the sophisticated folks will prop more cards against the bottom of the falling house of cards in an attempt to stabilize it.

But eventually, maybe not this time, and maybe not even in my lifetime, but eventually we need to rebuild our financial system with something other than cards and printing presses ... for example, maybe, bricks of gold.

I am not going to be buying any new stocks for quite a while unless I see signs that something fundamental has changed.

I am certainly not a professional and only have at risk a relatively small amount of money, so maybe that discounts my point of view.

Just felt like typing some thoughts of caution.

Sober