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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: InvesTing who wrote (1943)	1/22/2008 6:20:46 PM
From: octavian	Respond to of 2121

InvesTing said: <<does anyone doubt that Professor Malkeil was right when he told a caller to Brinker's own show to NEVER try to time the market?>> --I disagree with Malkiel. I don't believe in short-term timing,but I believe in trying to avoid major bears. In 1999, we were in a stock market bubble. I believe THAT was a great time to try to time the market--IOW, try to get out or partially out BEFORE the inevitable crash. Meanwhile, you should have an asset allocation plan in place that will enable you to withstand a bear market IF you fail to get out, or at least reduce your stock holdings, in time. Brinker failed to get out before a 15% or so drop. Therefore he now has no choice but to ride it out and take whatever comes. Again, if one's asset allocation is right, it shouldn't be a disaster. OTOH, if you think the market is going to go down 80%, now WOULD be a good time to get out. I don't believe we should use the words "never" or "always" very often. According to you, Malkiel used that word, and I think he was wrong to do so.

To: InvesTing who wrote (1943)	1/24/2008 9:25:31 AM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 2121

What is clear is that Brinker didn't have a clue about the mortgage mess, the depth of housing problems that remain unknowable, or whether or not the economy would go into a recession. It is equally obvious then that Brinker didn't and doesn't have a clue as to whether the economy will go into a recession or not. If you don't know that you cannot possibly know what the earnings of the companies making up the stock market will be. Very very well said.