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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (90719)	1/22/2008 11:09:17 AM
From: microhoogle!	Respond to of 110194

I got 500 free trades on a couple of ameritrade accounts each. Those accounts have maybe 2 grand each in them.

To: Tommaso who wrote (90719)	1/22/2008 1:18:16 PM
From: pogohere	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"In 1929, the memory was still alive in New York and Washington of the terrible inflation brought on by the Civil War and the issuance of the greenback currency (fiat, not redeemable in gold) 65 years earlier. After gradual retirement of the greenbacks, the country was back on a full gold standard." The Greenback performed quite well under the circumstances. The bankers who finally bribed Congress into its demise and into eliminating silver coinage finally got what they wanted with the Federal Reserve. see: Message 24100960

To: Tommaso who wrote (90719)	1/22/2008 1:52:18 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

'..the United States is engaged in an undeclared debt renunciation through currency inflation, and I expect a minimum average inflation rate of 7% compounded over the next five years, leading to a 50% rise in prices, overall, and further depreciation of the dollar against some other currencies' This helps get out of the current mess.. If they can keep fixed mortgage rates at these levels along with a steep yield curve for the next 18+ months it will be a success IMHO.. So keep understating inflation, run the printing presses, continue spending beyond our means and get oil prices down a bit and keep doing the dirty deed of destroying our currency.. What a plan<g>

To: Tommaso who wrote (90719)	1/22/2008 4:22:03 PM
From: ggersh	Respond to of 110194

Yes...all the cut achieves is a feel good factor...Nobody is saying why we had to have a rate cut of this magnitude in the first place...even still the problem is "CONTAINED"......IMHO

To: Tommaso who wrote (90719)	1/23/2008 11:09:13 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Hi Tommasso, An excellent Post. I agree with your thinking very much. I believe the US went back onto the gold standard in 1879. in 1919-1920 we had inflation rates that rivaled what we saw in 1979-80 and we had interest rates kick up to over 16% I believe a few rate benchmarkets got to 19% or so. I have mentioned several times that there is no political will for a deflationary contraction of any magnitude to occur, thus inflate we must. It's the Mandate, and is politically expedient. In the 70's the cry in the agricultural pits was *Beans in the teens* we got up very close to there recently and this time we should be able to vault up through there. If we look at live cattle and Hog prices they have sold off considerably the last few months. I anticipate that to mean that with feed costs being as high and looking to go higher the commercials are finding it short term more profitable to harvest the animals and it's depressing prices near term. The back side of this should be seeing those prices go up due to smaller herds that are carried forward. John

To: Tommaso who wrote (90719)	1/26/2008 10:50:20 PM
From: glenn_a	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Tommaso. Message 24237688 That was a very interesting post. Perhaps that which a generation most fears does impact policy response errors in the opposite direction. ((I think that the United States is engaged in an undeclared debt renunciation through currency inflation, and I expect a minimum average inflation rate of 7% compounded over the next five years, leading to a 50% rise in prices, overall, and further depreciation of the dollar against some other currencies. Some important prices may rise more, such as a doubling of grain and gasoline prices.)) Do you see any obstacles to the US continuing to debase their currency without consequences. For example, in bust in 1987, if I'm not mistaken differences in US and European interest rates, and consequent pressure on the US$, led the Fed to raise interest rates to defend the currency, and resulted in a crash in the autumn. Do you see any likelihood of a similar scenario occurring this time around? And if not, why not? TIA. glenn