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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobs10 who wrote (3136)	1/22/2008 9:33:02 PM
From: blind-geezer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4590

Bobs: can you give me the bottom line, is this bad boy bottomed ???

To: bobs10 who wrote (3136)	1/23/2008 2:02:04 AM
From: NicoV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4590

>Would the 16% of MB production at 65nm include TSMC? Yes. They said a portion of the 300mm 65nm production would be foundry production, but they didn't say how much. >Does that indicate that by H208 all 90nm MB will be done at SPSN? Yes. They were pretty clear that they would try to drive down foundry production as fast as possible. IMO, foundry is just a way to get enough product if their internal capacity is insufficient, rather than a drive to a fab-lite model. With SP1 becoming productive, there is less need for foundry capacity. If demand is high enough for products that are manufacturable at SP1, they will expand capacity at SP1, because it improves their gross margin (see slide on what kind of cost benefit they get going from 2000 to 4000 to 8000 wafer starts per week at SP1).

To: bobs10 who wrote (3136)	1/23/2008 9:45:50 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4590

bobs, I'm a little confused by the right hand graph on page nine. I'm assuming that foundry means TSMC/SMIC? Does that indicate that by H208 all 90nm MB will be done at SPSN? If so then I guess TSMC will have their 65nm processing running, pg10? Would the 16% of MB production at 65nm include TSMC? It seems like foundry is going from about 5% 0f 07 to maybe 1/2% in 08. If so does this means TSMC is out since they're a pure foundry? Just consider a graph that shows Spansion unit sales as a sloped line steadily increasing. The capacity was a flat line during 2006 and 2007, not keeping up with demand, and in 2008, a sudden jump up, equaling, and even surpassing the demand line. TSMC filled the gap between the lines, and will step in if demand outstrips supply. But probability of that happening in the near future is extremely slow, given the capacity potential of SP1. As far as TSMC, I guess that at some point Spansion will qualify 65nm production there, but the expectation for 2008 is that there will not be any 65nm TSMC output (or will not be material). As far as mechanics of these tranistions, as 110nm and under goes down (old end user product based on these are retired and replaced with newer models), new models will come on line, and Spansion is pushing 65nm for new designs (mainly from SP1). The wafer capacity used for 110nm (a lot of if in Fab 25) becomes available, Spansion uses this capacity for 90nm production, replacing TSMC output. Joe