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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (8757)	1/22/2008 11:10:01 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Respond to of 33421

I do not follow foreign currency/Gold charts much. However as I recall Gold has also hit new highs in Canada, England, and against the Euro. So regardless of the fact that the dollar has dropped against a selected basket of currencies Gold has risen against at least 3 of those currencies. It may also have hit highs against the other three or four currencies as well. I forget what's in the normally quoted basket, I think it's Euro SF CD BP YEN AD & perhaps one more. --------- The point being that it isn't so much the dollar is weak or strong, it's the relative value of currencies in general is falling.

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (8757)	1/23/2008 3:51:21 AM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 33421

I read your posts and they are reasonable as well. A lot of different views are possible. I don't really want to say much more or about gold than I've already said. Don't really have much more to say anyway, and would just waste space as I certainly do not have anything conclusive. I do have a gold EW but it just really isn't the right time to put it out and say anything about it. Best to wait a bit for more data to roll in. It is a bit of an interesting juncture here maybe, not only for gold but for a lot of things. Have stated and been of the opinion that this correction the general markets are in could last nearly all spring. If it does and we are near a low of sorts the rest of it will likely be a bit messy. Along with that I have felt the general markets are done for a good long stretch, unless we get a pretty severe correction in the commodity arena. Maybe they are done anyway, but I am not yet convinced. The commodity type indices I follow indicate that a commodity correction is underway, and probably a decent one. After the picture clears a bit we can discuss further. It will clear, and I suspect when it does it will clear with emphasis. I was asked the other day to consider the general fundamentals (after posting a 300 plus page fundamental brochure from JPM). The longterm economic fundamentals in my state have probably never been better, ever. But then my state is closely coupled to the natural resource arena; plus we probably have 40 billion plus in the PFD (which politicians can not readily touch). All those potheads in Juneau, back in the 70's, did a few things right. A bit weird but true. This is the only state I know of that has taken state revenue out of the politicians hands, because the potheads knew that over the longterm they couldn't be trusted. Forty years later we have the biggest bunch of scandels ever (unrelated to the PFD). en.wikipedia.org (A few interesting tidbits in this link, one about Yergins oil price prediction, another about how AK citizens feel about the dividend.)