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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (5661)	1/25/2008 3:31:48 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5867

Kirk do you have "accurate" revenue estimates for LRCX (FY2008 and FY2009)? One analyst cut LRCX revenue from 2.6 to 2.5 for FY 2008 just a couple days ago. They just announced $2.6 for CY 2007 (which obviously includes two quarters of FY 2008); revenues are declining but his estimate was $2.6 billion. Besides turtle/snail pace when it comes to "update" estimates it would be hard for me to comprehend how LRCX could ever get to $2.6 billion. Revenue for this quarter exceeded but the run rate even while exceeding is on the order of $2.4 billion for this quarter. The run rate based on Q1 FY 2008 ($684.6) is $2.74; the run rate for the first half FY 2008 (Q1 and Q2 combined = $1.295 billion) is 2.59. In order to get to $2.6 LRCX would need to have flat revenue revenue in the second half compared to first half and it would also imply revenue in the remaining two quarters to go up compared to Q2 (Q2 exceeded!); on average would need revenue of $647.5 million for the two remaining quarters. Now this analyst reduced to $2.5 billion Revenue for the two remaining quarters must remain flat to reach $2.5 billion 685+610+610+610 = $2.515 billion Maybe I made a mistake but this seems pretty much straight forward and my question is do certain "members" of the financial community increase estimates or provide estimates that are inflated while fretting at the same time about downturn? analyst quote: Lam Research: Target to $60 from $67. FY June 2008 revenue estimate to $2.5 billion from $2.6 billion; no EPS estimates due to option probe. Lam, he says “is likely to experience some near-term bookings choppiness.” LRCX results: Revenue for the period was $610.3 million compared to revenue of $684.6 million for the September 2007 quarter.