* Joint task force in Wisconsin found “clear evidence of fraud in the Nov. 2 election in MILWAUKEE,” including more than 200 felon voters, more than 100 double voters and thousands more ballots cast than voters recorded as having voted in the city.
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For a bit more analysis on Milwaukee County's presidential election results, let's take a look at the population dynamics over the past 13 years. As these articles make clear, Milwaukee County has seen a continuing flight of residents; the county decreased by 19,000 people between the 1990 and 2000 census, and the US Census Bureau estimates that the drop has steepened since. They now estimate that 32,000 fewer people live in Milwaukee County, including 29,000 voting-age adults.
From the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel of March 8, 2001:
Meanwhile, Milwaukee County Executive F. Thomas Ament was relieved to hear that his county didn't lose more people. Milwaukee County dropped 2%, from 959,275 to 940,164.
"Obviously, I'm not pleased with losing population," he said, but this drop is "not as large as many have expected."
Ament said Milwaukee County's population decline reflected a trend of "less people per household," particularly in long-developed areas.
And it dropped further, according to Census Bureau estimates, since the last election cycle. In 2000, the Census found 692,339 adults living in Milwaukee County. In 2003, the Census Bureau estimates 663,517 adults, a drop of almost 30,000 potential voters, and a much steeper decline than in the previous decade.
Now, with that information, one would expect a decline in voter registrations and turnout, at least in real numbers. However, the election turnout has shown a remarkable and unnerving result that belies the residency figures. Ballots cast have increased, and not by a statistically insignificant margin. Here are the numbers for the last three presidential election cycles:
1996: 365,387
2000: 433,537
2004: 482,236
The increase in votes for the 2000 election was 18.7% over 1996 in a county that had had a net decrease in population of 2% over the past decade. In 2004, despite a population decrease of 3.2% in the past three years, the voter response increased in Milwaukee County by 11.2% over the already-ballooned turnout of 2000. While Milwaukee County lost 5% of its overall population over the past thirteen years and accelerating in the past three, votes cast increased an unbelievable 32% in the past eight years.
I'd like to see the statistical analysis which supports that kind of voter turnout improvements, especially with only a 6% increase overall in national turnout between 1996 and 2004. The results point to some other force at play than a monumental increase in civic response among Milwaukee County adults.
UPDATE: This certainly could be one explanation, an e-mail from a Wisconsin poll worker to Dirty Harry at Stranded On Blue Islands:
We have a large low income apartment complex located in the district covered at the polling place I worked. We had more same day registrants for that address than could live there.
We were unable to contest any of those registrations because of a little trick called "Voter verification" It goes something like this: A voter has an out of state driver's license and wants to register.They are required to present a utility bill or some other form of information that would verify they live where they say. If they don't have that, a "legitimate elector" can verify their residence.
What is a "legitimate elector" you may ask? Well let me give you an example. Groups from Move-on.org, Vote Now, ACT, and local GOTV would drop off a group of "voters". One of the drivers would act as the "Legitimate Elector" and say this person was located where he claimed. Presto - that person is a voter.
Do that enough times and the 32% increase in votes from 1996 to 2004 becomes a lot more understandable.
captainsquartersblog.com
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January 18, 2005
The Silence Of The Cheese
Can you still hear the cheese screaming, Clar-iiiiiice?
Michelle Malkin points out a story that I had missed in neighboring Wisconsin, one that calls into question the veracity of its presidential-election results. Wisconsin wound up going for John Kerry by 11,300 votes in what came as a mild surprise to most observers in the Upper Midwest (via Stranded On Blue Islands). Al Gore had carried the state by a shade over 5,000 votes in 2000, and most pollsters had the race a dead heat or George Bush pulling slightly ahead in 2004. Instead, Kerry took Wisconsin by doubling Gore's margin.
How did that happen? Well, in one county -- Milwaukee, a traditional Democratic stronghold -- turnout increased by just under 49,000 votes, or about 10%, outstripping the nationwide increase of 6.4%. The new votes broke about 60/40 Kerry, about the trend of the county in both elections, adding a 9,000-vote margin to Milwaukee over Gore in the last election.
But here's where the Silence Of The Cheese gets ... well, stickier. According to state records, 83,000 people executed a same-day registration for Milwaukee County, which is more than 20% of all voting-age residents in the county. Now, Wisconsinites may procrastinate a bit, but in order to believe that number, you'd have to expect that 20% of the county had moved or became newly eligible within the past two years (after the previous national cycle). Not only that, but the state now reports that 10,000 of those registrations cannot be verified, a whopping 12% of all same-day registrations and almost the entire margin of victory for Kerry for the entire state.
Two more interesting statistics show up as well. In 2000, the US Census Bureau showed that Milwaukee County had 425,990 residents 18 years of age and older (incorrect -- see below), yet the 2000 election had 433,537 voters casting ballots. In order for that to be correct, the census had to miss 2% of Milwaukee's 18+ population -- and no felons had to live in Milwaukee County, nor any resident aliens, illegal aliens, or any other adult ineligible to vote. And that's just 2000. In 2004, again, the voters increased by 11% on top of what was already a 102% turnout for the previous presidential election.
But hey, let's be fair about this. Maybe those statistics are in error and Milwaukee has always turned out big in elections, although 113% does seem a bit high, even for civic-minded Wisconsin. Take a look at 1996, when Bill Clinton coasted to re-election over Bob Dole. Milwaukee was no exception either; Clinton topped Dole by a shade over 97,000 votes. The difference is that Milwaukee only cast 365,387 votes for president that year (page 52), or about an 86% turnout. That's 68,000 less than 2000 and a whopping 117,000 less than 2004.
Did Milwaukee grow that much? Or has Mayor Daley been resurrected in Milwaukee?
Despite being the fastest-growing metropolis for likely voters in the nation and despite its razor-thin margin for John Kerry, the Wisconsin voting irregularities have yet to grab the attention of the national media. Instead of long lines due to the miscalculations of Democratic Party election officials in Ohio who were too cheap to buy enough voting machines, we appear to have endemic voter fraud in Wisconsin's largest county, large enough to have returned fraudulent Electoral College results in two succeeding presidential elections. And yet Barbara Boxer has shed no tears on the Senate floor for Wisconsin voters; John Kerry has not pontificated in stentorian tones about Wisconsin disenfranchisement on Martin Luther King Day. The New York Times has not called for a federal investigation into Milwaukee's double-plus-good turnout the past two presidential elections. CBS News has not delivered a breathless report on it for 60 Minutes Wednesday. In fact, from what I can find, not one national news outlet has given any attention to the facts above. Not one.
Why? Why does the Silence Of The Cheese continue to deafen our national media? If they have their way, Clarice Starling wouldn't come within 500 miles of Milwaukee but instead would chase down red herrings in Cleveland, Ohio. It almost convinces me that political bias plays a role in mainstream media coverage. Good think Dick Thornburgh told me otherwise.
UPDATE: Welcome, Instapundit readers! Be sure to read these blogs for more details:
Polipundit
The American Mind
Boots and Sabers
Pull On Superman's Cape
UPDATE II: I misread the data from Stranded On Blue Islands. The correct number for Milwaukee County adults in 2000 was significantly higher -- 692,339. SOBI referenced data for Milwaukee City, while I compared that to county returns. That moves the 1996 turnout to 57% of all adults (not registered voters!), 2000 to 62.5%, and 2004 to 69.7%, although the raw voter totals remain correct in my post above. My apologies; I should have confirmed that data first as it does materially affect the analysis.
However, the growth rate for Milwaukee County is almost a 20% increase in voters over an eight-year period. Does that sound like Milwaukee has grown that fast? Especially when the Census Bureau shows a net decrease in population for Milwaukee of 36,000 by 2003 (estimated)? That includes a net decrease in adults of 29,000...
UPDATE III: I've been asked why I didn't just rewrite this post with the correct data. Well, I assume that some people might be able to find the original post through RSS feeds, so that would look rather dishonest -- and besides, I screwed up, and I don't have an issue with admitting it. The new data changes this from a slam dunk to a more complicated story. I've taken a fresh look at the correct demographic data in this new post, and I hope you check it out.
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