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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jackjc who wrote (55923)	1/25/2008 12:23:01 PM
From: E. Charters	Respond to of 78428

Article with charts indicates pressures which drive gold. Also value charts. This article is 2004, but is seems like it applies to today given the predictions. safehaven.com Most have seen this 1492 to present day chart of gold price in constant (1997) dollars. This chart has been presented by others with a different Y axis range from 0 to 4500, which give an average value of gold for 500+ years at 450 dollars. Average price in 1998 dollars for gold from 1801 to 1998 is $627 by this chart. This is annotated and a line drawn. I believe that $450 may be a the mode value of gold. (Most frequently occurring value) (Not an average. The average is hard to divine as the chart is exponential on the Y axis.) It requires data to calc. Very roughly the true 650 year average historical value might be closer to $660 in 1998 dollars. This is 812 dollars in 2008. So we are only up 13% on value today. The average If you take the 1998 price (278 dollars in 1997 dollars) forward to today with a CPI inflation calc, you get a price of 373 dollars. We are at 2.5 times the low. Sound familiar? --> "If we pick a ratio such as 3 from 1974, and assume a worse case scenario 72% fall in the Dow to 3,000 within five years from rising interest rates, this could imply $1,000 gold. This would fit older patterns if gold continues to play "catch up" during a continued asset price deflation credit bust cycle combined with simultaneous consumer price inflation."