Hello Snowshoe,
I am home alone, and up to no good.
Wife, coconut, nanny, and in-laws who live in the neighborhood have all gone to Guangzhou for the weekend, for Chinese lunar new year concert and Russian circus and zoo visits.
I am spending time doing this and that, and am busy between Unreal Tournament Last Man Standing Death Match and Medal of Honor Airborne.
I went through my e-mail as usual after an unusually late wakeup (7:30, 2 hours later than usual). First up is one from pal, a #1 rated analyst, announcing Chinese lunar new year redundancy from one of the big 3 global USA banks. He is one of the few in his sector to call for sell sell sell, at the top, and yet the policy is apparently to fire all the expensive hands, and so the bleeding starts.
I also did some laundry … the first time since perhaps 1993. The experience is traumatic … like does one load in all the additives at the beginning of the cycle? Also, what does one do with all the dials and buttons?
Speaking of Chinese Lunar New Year massacre and laundry and such, I believe the current implicit beliefs in the market are wrong, and suggest we act and counter-act accordingly. The implicit beliefs that are explicitly stated as wrong are as follows:
(a) the monoline insurers will and can be bailed out
(b) the spreading virus will be stopped in time
(c) bailed out monoline insurers and other financial institutions nationalized (by own or other nations) equals bailed out shareholders and depositors
(d) 6 billion loss at LTCM can wobble the planet but 600 billion loss around the world will not cause the debt-puffed (at the revenue level and the valuation levels) stock indices to drop 50% and more, and will not impel the purchasing value of worthless paper money to vaporize by 50%
(e) The notional derivative load is only notional and after net net phucking net, no one of consequence will lose anything of any consequence
(f) The Empire’s society will sail through and move on to the next fiat nirvana and street riots, lootings, and hammer and sickle flagged million discontented men marches only happen in other nations
(g) Argentine-style solutions only destroy middle class in Argentina and is not applicable with equal force against flexible, dynamic, and infinitely innovative Empire debt serfs
(h) Zimbabwe-fashion outcomes only works as expected in Zimbabwe but will be fine within the domain of Ben Helicopter BurnAndKaput and the Empire of Hank Handjob Paulson
(i) Lenders like to lose money, because the money they can get will be free, and that such costless money is real, intentions pure, and all will be fooled at all times
(j) 11,000 super leveraged hedge funds losing average of 15%+ of assets within 27 days does not matter, and the psychology is not damaged, faith cracked, and mind paralyzed with fear – that no one announcing severe distress is a positive sign
(k) movies such as "I am Legend" and "Cloverfield" are not indicative of social mood immediately below the conscious
(l) there cannot be a fine day when no bids are on offer and all ask will be refused
Suggestion: sharpen knives, ready torches, prepare noise makers, scope out targets, of opportunity, value, merit, and the average straggling type – open season on everything and each other soon, and our duty is but to one, our family, only, now or never, no tears otherwise - we have, collectively and individually, issued enough rational warnings and suggested enough panicked but still rational counteractions - we have done enough against the prime evil and its minions and can do no more, on this and other threads
Final remark: if one feels compelled to wager, bet on the short side, join the dark band, in wait for the crowd soon to be panicked and silently screaming, and do it to them once can see the deep crimson and pulsating threads within the clouded over and slightly less red eyes, so as to load up for the journey across the dark interregnum and the teotwawki dawn beyond.
Recommendation: one word, a verb and adjective and noun, "buygold", it is for optimists, or gather canned food and munitions. |
