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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Vosilla who wrote (90916)1/28/2008 11:20:33 AM
From: Jim McMannis  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
I'll have to dust off my copy.



To: John Vosilla who wrote (90916)1/28/2008 1:10:40 PM
From: NOW  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
really? If one had listened to Mish, you would have bought US treasuries and gold, which have done might well the past 3 years!



To: John Vosilla who wrote (90916)1/28/2008 7:17:18 PM
From: glenn_a  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
Hi John.

((Batra's 'Depression of 1990'))

Actually, I haven't read his book. Maybe I'll pick it up.

((Our disinflationary events around 1990-91 and 2001-02 were the chance for deflationists to 'win' for more than a couple of innings.))

Thanks for replying John, but I'm sort of tiring of discussing the whole inflation/deflation thing. Certainly the historical market episodes I look to are those where a long-wave credit cycle fundamentally collapsed, resulted in significant bank failures, and produced significant economic hardship. Most specifically, these are the Great Depressions of the 1930's and 1870's. Maybe these aren't the appropriate historical episodes to reflect upon, but there it is.

((Large debtor nations currency crashes as has been going on for most of this decade.)

Yes, but there's a big difference between an economy at the "edge" of the global economy collapsing, and there banking system facing insolvency - like say Mexico or Argentina. And the economy whose currency acts as the global reserve currency having its financial system facing insolvency. But who knows, maybe they are able to inflate their way out of it. We'll see.

((This whole 'depression' talk sounds sexy to a large fringe group of people who have no clue or desire how to put their money to work for them,are anti capitalism, aren't listening at all to our politicians and think by just sitting around all day their cash in the bank will make them rich while all the idiots in the real world implode.))

So substitute "hyperinflation" for "depression", and how does your sentence read any differently - other than instead of "sitting around all day with cash in the bank", they're "sitting around all day investing in gold and speculating on commodities"? I don't get it.

I think most people who hold cash do it to save. I don't know too many people who aspire to get rich holding cash. Do you?

Best regards,
Glenn