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To: Asymmetric who wrote (125572)1/29/2008 12:59:50 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 362860
 
Obama Makes `Defining Moment' With Rhetoric Evoking JFK & King

By Indira Lakshmanan

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama is making his mark on U.S. politics as the most memorable orator since Ronald Reagan, even if he doesn't win the Democratic presidential nomination.

The Illinois senator has energized crowds, garnering praise from Democrats and Republicans alike for an oratorical style that focuses on his sense of mission and touches only glancingly on policy.

``The choice in this election is not between regions or religions or genders; it's not about rich versus poor, young versus old, and it is not about black versus white,'' Obama, 46, said at a rally in Washington yesterday. ``It's about whether we're going to seize this moment to write the next great American story, so someday we can tell our children that this was the time when we healed our nation.''

Obama and longtime front-runner Hillary Clinton are locked in a tight race, with two primary wins each. His appeal to voters is fueled, in part, by his speeches, which have earned him comparisons to John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King.

``I was almost moved to tears by the power and the breadth of Obama's message,'' said Ted Sorensen, 79, the former speechwriter for Kennedy and an Obama supporter. ``His speaking style and what he stood for reminded me of JFK, of national interests uncluttered by the interests of race, religion or even political party.''

`Inspired'

Caroline Kennedy, JFK's daughter, endorsed Obama over the weekend. Appearing with him yesterday in Washington, she said he offers the ``same sense of hope and inspiration'' as her father did. Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy, the late president's brother, also endorsed Obama at yesterday's event.

By contrast with Obama, Clinton, 60, largely devotes her speeches to detailed descriptions of policy, from the alternative minimum tax to health insurance for self-employed realtors to U.S. policy toward Bolivia.

``I get a little wonky,'' the New York senator said in an interview published in the Jan. 21 issue of Newsweek. ``I get a little out there with details, with five-point plans for this and 10-point plans for that.''

Clinton, who is leading in national polls, often gets the better of Obama in televised debates, forums that rarely lend themselves to rhetorical eloquence.

Clinton Playbook

As he prepares to compete with her in the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday primary contests in 22 states, Obama may need to take a page from her playbook and use his speeches to display his own grasp of policy rather than his command of rhetoric.

``It's not that you have to lose your vision or lofty goals; it's that you have to talk about other things along the way,'' said Stephen Lucas, professor of communication arts at University of Wisconsin at Madison and author of a soon-to-be- published anthology of the top 100 American speeches of the 20th century.

Obama already has soared past more established and experienced Democratic candidates to challenge Clinton. This is, in large part, thanks to his ability to inspire a growing segment of Democrats -- as well as some independents and Republicans -- with a message and language that are inclusive, memorable turns of phrase, rolling cadences, repetition and a rich voice.

These skills were on display Jan. 20, as Obama spoke from King's former pulpit at the Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. He called on Americans of all colors and creeds to ``march with me and join your voice with mine, and together we will sing the song that tears down the walls that divide us, and lift up an America that is truly indivisible, with liberty, and justice, for all.''

Signature Theme

Obama first introduced this signature theme of unity in his keynote address to the 2004 Democratic National Convention, where he decried those who ``slice-and-dice our country into red states and blue states; red states for Republicans, blue states for Democrats.''

``There is not a liberal America and a conservative America -- there is the United States of America,'' he said.

Obama's message echoes Robert F. Kennedy's, Lucas said. ``What both of them communicated is hope, optimism, inclusiveness and national unity; that we can and should be better as a country than we are,'' he said.

Since Franklin D. Roosevelt, only Kennedy and Reagan habitually strove for that loftier tone. Former President Bill Clinton, for example, largely kept to a conversational tone, and left behind few memorable speeches.

`Inspirational Style'

``You don't have too many people today who go for that inspirational style, in part because if you don't hit the right note, you fall on your face,'' said Robert Schlesinger, author of the forthcoming book ``White House Ghosts: Presidents and their Speechwriters.''

On a spectrum from plain speaking to grand oratory, Obama probably exemplifies a ``middle-style'' most similar to Reagan's, mixing colloquial language with lofty, values-laden themes, said David Eisenhower, who teaches a course on presidential speechmaking at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia.

``There's an innocent quality about Barack that adds poignancy to the improbability of his quest,'' said Eisenhower, a grandson of President Dwight D. Eisenhower. ``And he has an extraordinary ability to get crowds to react and participate in sync.''

Reagan's Vision

Schlesinger said Obama sounds like President Kennedy when he tells audiences ``that I am not going to promise you things, I am going to demand things of you.'' At the same time, Obama's frequent references to the opportunities that American society offers are reminiscent of Reagan's vision of ``a shining city upon a hill.''

Obama's call for unity is both overt and inherent in his choice of words. In the speech he gave after his Jan. 3 victory in Iowa's first Democratic contest for president, he used ``we'' and ``you'' more than twice as often as ``I'' or ``me.'' The message is that he leads a movement, not a party; that he is a vehicle, his supporters the driving force.

``Our destiny,'' he said, ``will not be written for us, but by us, by all those men and women who are not content to settle for the world as it is, who have the courage to remake the world as it should be.''

Reinforcing his biracial heritage and his self-positioning as a candidate who can heal America's racial divide, he also routinely pairs a white historical figure with a black one: Abraham Lincoln and Willie Mays, Kennedy and King.

Even Republicans admit to being impressed.

`Biblical Cadence'

``Stylistically, I rank him quite high -- I like his Biblical cadence, parallel structure, alliteration, repetition, involving the crowd as participants,'' said Curt Smith, a former speechwriter for President George H.W. Bush, now a senior English lecturer at the University of Rochester.

Still, not everyone is convinced his mastery of style and emotion are matched by substance.

Obama's speeches are ``extremely pleasing and moving,'' said Ted Widmer, a historian at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, who was a speechwriter for President Clinton and now supports Hillary Clinton. ``But I'm not sure I've heard a truly arresting thought.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Indira Lakshmanan in Washington at ilakshmanan@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 29, 2008 00:05 EST



To: Asymmetric who wrote (125572)1/29/2008 4:23:45 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 362860
 
Fed May Cut Rate to Below Inflation, Risking New Asset Bubbles

By Craig Torres and Simon Kennedy

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may push interest rates below the pace of inflation this year to avert the first simultaneous decline in U.S. household wealth and income since 1974.

The threat of cascading stock and home values and a weakening labor market will spur the Fed to cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point tomorrow, traders and economists forecast. That would bring the rate to 3 percent, approaching one measure of price increases monitored by the Fed.

``The Fed is going to have to keep slashing rates, probably below inflation,'' said Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist who co-founded an index of house prices. ``We are starting to see a change in consumer psychology.''

So-called negative real interest rates represent an emergency strategy by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and are fraught with risks. The central bank would be skewing incentives toward spending, away from saving, typically leading to asset booms and busts that have to be dealt with later.

Negative real rates are ``a substantial danger zone to be in,'' said Marvin Goodfriend, a former senior policy adviser at the Richmond Fed bank. ``The Fed's mistakes have been erring too much on the side of ease, creating circumstances where you had either excessive inflation, or a situation where there is an excessive boom that goes on too long.''

Adjusting Outlook

The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today and will announce its decision at about 2:15 p.m. in Washington tomorrow. Officials will also discuss updates to their three-year economic forecasts at the session.

Bernanke, 54, and his colleagues on Jan. 22 lowered the target rate for overnight loans between banks by three-quarters of a percentage point. The cut was the biggest since the Fed began using the rate as its main policy tool in 1990 and followed a slide in stocks from Hong Kong to London that threatened to send U.S. equities down by more than 5 percent.

The central bank will probably lower the rate to at least 2.25 percent in the first half, according to futures prices quoted on the Chicago Board of Trade. The chance of a half-point cut tomorrow is 88 percent, with 12 percent odds on a quarter- point.

Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index minus food and energy, was a 2.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, economists estimate. The Commerce Department releases the figures tomorrow.

Mortgage Binge

The last time the Fed pushed real rates so low was in 2005, in the middle of the three-year housing bubble, when consumers took on $2.9 trillion in new home-loan debt, the biggest increase of any three-year period on record.

Aggressive rate cuts are justified if there's ``conclusive evidence'' that household income prospects are in danger, said Goodfriend, now a professor at the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

They might be. Real disposable income grew at a 2.1 percent annual pace in November, the slowest in 16 months, as higher food and energy costs eroded paychecks. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 6.1 percent in October from a year earlier, the most in at least six years. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is down 15 percent from its record on Oct. 11.

The last time household real estate, stocks and real incomes all declined in a quarter was during the 1974 recession, according to calculations by Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.

`Losing That Prop'

``Wealth had been rising because of strong home prices'' and stock gains, said Chris Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisers in St. Louis. ``Now, we are losing that prop to consumption, so it all comes down to growth in real income.''

Varvares predicted that housing and investment portfolios will add nothing to consumption this year, while incomes, after inflation, may gradually rise ``so long as oil behaves.'' The firm expects the economy to grow at a 1 percent to 2 percent annual pace in the first half.

``A big part of the 75 basis point surprise was to blunt the worsening of financial conditions'' that may reduce employment and hurt income growth, Varvares said. The firm predicts a half-point cut tomorrow.

``That need not be the end,'' Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, said in an interview. ``They can keep coming back and revisiting it every six weeks.''

Feldstein, a member of the group that dates U.S. economic cycles, said any recession this year ``could be much more painful because of the fragility of the financial sector.''

The Fed incorporates wealth effects, or the impact of changes in household assets on spending, in its economic model. Americans cut spending by about 5 cents for every $1 of decline in their home values or stock portfolios, economists estimate.

``We are likely to see another wave of problems in the consumer-credit side,'' John Thain, chief executive officer of Merrill Lynch & Co., said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week. ``This is going to be exacerbated by the rise in unemployment and we have issues with higher energy prices.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net , Simon Kennedy in Paris at 6290 or skennedy4@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 29, 2008 00:05 EST



To: Asymmetric who wrote (125572)1/29/2008 8:28:28 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 362860
 
Schwarzenegger praises McCain and Obama
_____________________________________________________________

By Carla Marinucci
San Francisco Chronicle Political Writer
Tuesday, January 29, 2008

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, weighing in on the presidential race, said that both Republican presidential candidate John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are on the right track in "talking about bringing people together" across partisan lines.

And, he said that the high profile and competing endorsements the Kennedy family - not including his wife Maria Shriver - in the Democratic presidential contest represents a dramatic departure from past years.

"What's interesting is that, within the family, for the first time you have different opinions," he said. "I've been in the family 30 years, and I've never seen that...that's really the story - what created that, and how Caroline and Teddy hooked up with the same opinion, and Kathleen ended up going with Hillary."

"I don't know the whole scoop, because it just happened, " he laughed. "But eventually we'll find out."

Schwarzenegger was referring to the news that Shriver's cousins, Caroline Kennedy and Rep. Patrick Kennedy of Rhode Island, and her uncle, Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy endorsed Obama Monday in a dramatic event at American University. But other family members, including former Maryland lieutenant governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the daughter of the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, has endorsed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, and said her brother Bobby and sister Kerry do as well.

Schwarzenegger declined to address a possible endorsement by his wife, saying "you'll have to ask her yourself."

But sources in the office of the California First Lady, who is the daughter of Eunice Kennedy Shriver and Sargent Shriver - and the niece to Ted Kennedy, the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy and the late president John F. Kennedy - said today that Shriver currently has no plans to endorse in the 2008 presidential race.

Shriver political sympathies could be valuable to both Clinton and Obama in the race: she is an active First Lady who has been a leading advocate of women's issues - and she is also a good friend to talk show host Oprah Winfrey, who has endorsed Obama.

Schwarzenegger, during a wide-ranging session with the Chronicle editorial board, also declined to formally endorse a GOP presidential candidate. But the California governor didn't rule it out - and came closest when he said that McCain should be congratulated for working across party lines to get things done, despite being hammered by conservative pundits around the country as being too friendly with Democrats. .

"I think that you should never worry about being hammered," he said. "If you want to lead, there will always be people against it. I hear this kind of stuff all the time."

McCain "is smart to continue talking about those issues. It is smart for Obama to continue talking about those issues, crossing the line," Schwarzenegger said. "You will see worldwide, more and more people are going to look at that as a way of bringing people together. And there's nowhere more important to do that than in America."

Schwarzenegger said he will appear with President Bush at an economic event in the Los Angeles area this week. And he will also be present at the live televised GOP debate from the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, where he is expected to escort Nancy Reagan to watch the final meeting of the candidates before the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday primaries.

sfgate.com