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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggamer who wrote (91079)	1/31/2008 12:36:15 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Very tough questions since I'm mostly a trader and I don't know your loss and risk tolerance or time frame or how much due diligence you've done, etc. There's decent support now around $880-890 but it's not impossible for a correction back to the $700 area... although I view it as a low probability. Gold and silver are very volatile and perhaps an averaging in approach might be best? Probably my best reco is to get a toehold now - I don't believe you'll be sorry on the long term. I'll be a bit more comfortable trading after mid March, per my prediction chart... but it's only one chart that only tracks hot money and should never be used in a vacuum, as I've warned about multiple times on my blog. I still have long term minimum targets of 3200 and 100 respectively, and I won't even start to look at exiting until at least 2000 and 60. As far as signs, the same ones apply as applied in '79-'80 and of course in 1999-2000 for dot coms, etc. - mania issues, signs of real tightening (my "activity indicator" is one chart that tracks this area), many folk talking about gold at cocktail parties, a Dow/gold ratio peak, a Time magazine cover about how great gold is, and of course a "rhino horn" or blow off chart formation. Read Charles Mackay on manias if you haven't already, if might help. Currently and with my normal cloudy crystal ball, I don't see a final peak earlier than 2011.