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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jrhana who wrote (28978)	2/1/2008 12:09:11 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218126

I can't do time frames like Jay can. I've got a "grandfathered" free membership in SI. Back in 1998, you could try SI for free for a month, and after the month, SI (Bob) gave me (out of the blue) a free lifetime membership because he liked the way I write. Free being a Good Thing, I haven't upgraded to the level of membership that would allow unlimited searching. Besides which, it's best this way, so I don't spend time arguing about what was said back in 2001, as some are wont to do. The thread name says it all. Some have been predicting financial collapse since 2001. Indeed, some have been predicting financial collapse since the start of the last bull market. Bull markets and bear markets come and go, financial collapse never seems to follow. ;^)

To: jrhana who wrote (28978)	2/1/2008 4:51:21 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218126

i did not know that, thanks just in in-tray, from one pen pal who uses no capitals quote Egan Jones - the only independent ratings agency (i.e. not paid by the debt issuers, but only by investors) rates ABK and MBI a still generous BB-. this bond insurance problem can't be wished away...imo it will return to haunt the markets. a number of banks are now reportedly working on a bail-out plan, but one of the problems with this is that they are strapped for capital themselves. whoever 'shores up' the insurers will end up eating their coming losses after all. so there's a good chance that this plan goes the way of the 'super SIV' in the end. unquote

To: jrhana who wrote (28978)	2/2/2008 3:43:28 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218126

Greenback could be on track to be carry-trade funding currency Cash and carry? The Fed's move "has pushed the U.S. dollar lower against every major currency as it quickly becomes a carry-trade funding currency" itself, said Kathy Lien, chief strategist at Forex Capital Markets. Five months ago, U.S. rates were the fourth-highest in the developed world and now they are the third-lowest, she said, meaning the dollar is "yielding only 25 basis points more than Switzerland which means that once the Fed lowers rates again in March, and we expect them to, the U.S. dollar will be tied with the [Swiss] franc as second-lowest yielding currency in the developed world," above only Japan's rock-bottom 0.5%. But in order for the dollar to retain its appeal for such trades, the interest rate differentials would have to remain -- and that might not happen, if the global impact of the U.S. slowdown spreads and other central banks follow the Fed down an easing path. In 2001, the Fed cut its target rate to 1% to jump-start the recessionary U.S. economy. But the dollar-funded carry trade didn't catch on in a major way. Most investors had expected the central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. Markets factored in the half-point cut ahead of the announcement, analysts said, but a reduction of a quarter of a percentage point couldn't be ruled out. Although the cut was in line with expectations, what pressured the dollar most was Fed language that implied more rate cuts could be coming. The central bank also warned that "downside risks to growth remain, suggesting the door is open" to further easing, said Marc Chandler, currency analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman. Lower rates typically weigh on a currency because they erode the returns on assets denominated in it, but sometimes they support currencies to the extent that they bolster economic-growth prospects. marketwatch.com