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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggersh who wrote (3811)	2/1/2008 8:03:24 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 71463

Depends on which COT you want to use -g- This is the original data. cftc.gov

To: ggersh who wrote (3811)	2/1/2008 8:26:01 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 71463

timingcharts.com Choose gold to see how COT evolves in time. You can see that spec longs stayed near record since early October. Yet, gold price rallied from $750 to where it is now. Yes, gold does that. So... it says nothing. COT seems to be pretty useless by itself, except that such a long position ensures a sharp drop of $100 or more at some point to test the guts of investors. That gold does too. It is hard to predict. However, seasonal bottoms tend to occur either during April or July/August. Sometimes gold powers much higher into May. Go figure. It's best to stay invested, then catch the drop with some fresh clownbucks -g-

To: ggersh who wrote (3811)	2/1/2008 11:08:54 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 71463

The biggest problem I have right now is that I'm really expecting the buck to engage in a nosebleeding dive soon because it became a carry trade funding currency with a huge current account deficit on top. This should also cause an explosive stock market rally (hmm... stocks hold value better than clownbucks or clownbonds) They (whoever they are) occasionally use gold COT dump to postpone the inevitable. "Think like a criminal" philosophy says they will try it now, since they are desperate and will do anything to postpone the inevitable backfiring of the 125 bp. cut. It won't work, but it may provide a dip. It's hard to say how big of a dip, maybe today was all we get. -g-