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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gvatty who wrote (247249)	2/2/2008 4:34:10 AM
From: Gloo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

I believe that was a snarky, mean response. Who do you think you are kidding? You constantly take cheap shots against Intel and now you are getting all sanctimonious when you think someone else is doing that to AMD? Of course the difference here is that WBMW actually treats this like an Investment Board so refers to trading tactics. You on the other hand post tripe from the New York Slimes that has nothing to do with trading and would be more at home on a forum at Tom's Hardware. Get off your high horse.

To: gvatty who wrote (247249)	2/2/2008 1:17:30 PM
From: wbmw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: You are a perfect example of a rabid Intel supporter. Someone posts that AMD hit $8 today and you quickly respond that its nearing a great shorting opportunity. So I guess your logic is that anyone with a bearish attitude on your favorite stock must be a "rabid" supporter of the competition. Re: If you really believe it I hope you short AMD and wish you luck. I made money shorting AMD on three separate occasions last year, and I have documented those on these forums precisely when they occurred. The only time I didn't short was when AMD shot upwards at $10, and I thought hitting single digits seemed to carry a lot of resistance. Boy, was I wrong, but no use crying over missed opportunities. I look forward to new opportunities, and there's nothing wrong with that. Re: If I said the same thing about Intel 3 weeks ago,I would have been called stupid and crazy by Intel supporters, but I would have made a lot of money by doing so. That's absolutely true, and I might have been one of them. I am still convinced that the market is making INTC a cheap stock, and you can see somewhat of a recovery happening over the past week. However, nothing is fundamentally going to change investor perception of INTC until earnings contradict the sentiment of a recession that is overwhelmingly depressing the market values of some very good stocks. AMD, on the other hand, is getting propped up based on a perception that they did better than expected in their Q4 earnings. That may or may not be true, but I think the current data makes it ambiguous. I think their products are rapidly losing competitiveness, and that growing revenues in any rapidly growing Q4 does not mean growth will continue during the soft quarters of the year. Q1 and Q2 are seasonally down quarters, AMD has even less competitive products than they had in Q4 due to Intel's introduction of 45nm parts, and so I expect the situation to get continuously worse for them going forward. I don't even think that quad and tri cores will help, given the size of those die relative to their current product lines, and the depressed ASPs they will be forced to sell at due to the lower frequency range and underwhelming IPC improvement, relative to what was expected, or what was necessary to close the gap with Intel. I did a little analysis here of where I expect AMD's K10 dual cores to be in terms of performance. siliconinvestor.com Unless they end up doing substantially better than my expectations - of which I believe I was being generous - then I expect K10 dual core pricing in the range of $65-120, while costs will be greater than existing products due to die size. Meanwhile, I expect Intel's duals to outperform AMD's tris in the range of $120-200, and Intel's quads will outperform AMD's quads at any price >$200. Do the math. AMD is going to struggle until they hit 45nm, and based on history, I am not willing to bet that they hit their H2 2008 schedule.