Clinton, Obama in close Super Tuesday races By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
Sun Feb 3, 1:15 AM ET
Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are running neck-and-neck in California, New Jersey and Missouri two days before the sprawling "Super Tuesday" presidential showdown, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday.
Obama has a slight lead in California and is virtually tied with Clinton in New Jersey and Missouri heading into the biggest day of voting in a U.S. presidential nominating campaign, with contests in 24 states from coast to coast.
"It looks like we have some serious horse races going on with Clinton and Obama," said pollster John Zogby said. "However it turns out, we can be pretty sure it is too close to be resolved on Tuesday."
Obama, an Illinois senator who would be the first black U.S. president, has a comfortable 20-point lead in Georgia fueled by a more than 3-to-1 advantage over Clinton among black voters.
In the Republican race, Arizona Sen. John McCain has double-digit leads on Mitt Romney in New York, New Jersey and Missouri but narrowly trails the former Massachusetts governor in California, the biggest prize on "Super Tuesday."
Romney leads McCain by 37 percent to 34 percent in California. The poll's margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.
"California could be Romney's last stand," Zogby said. "If he wins there, it may not be a whole new ballgame, but it can give those Republicans who oppose McCain hope they still have a chance to stop him."
The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll surveyed the presidential races in both parties in California, New Jersey and Missouri. The polls, taken Thursday through Saturday, also included the Republican race in New York and the Democratic race in Georgia. Polling will continue through Monday.
CLINTON, OBAMA RUN CLOSE
Both parties have staged tight, seesawing battles for the nominations for November's presidential election. Clinton, the New York senator, and Obama split the first four Democratic contests -- Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, while Clinton won New Hampshire and Nevada.
In California, the poll found Obama led Clinton by 45 percent to 41 percent, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Clinton held statistically insignificant 1-point leads on Obama in New Jersey and Missouri, well within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in both surveys.
Both candidates have established a strong base of support and are holding on to it ahead of Tuesday's voting, the poll found. Clinton leads among women, Hispanics and elderly voters. Obama leads among blacks, men and young voters.
"They are running very close, essentially evenly split, among most of the rest of the sub-groups," Zogby said. "It is a very tight, very contested race on almost every level."
In the Republican race, McCain is riding a wave of momentum after consecutive wins over Romney in South Carolina and Florida, and is hoping a strong showing on Tuesday will put him on the path to the nomination.
He held big leads over Romney in New York, 49 percent to 23 percent, and in New Jersey, 54 percent to 23 percent. In Missouri, McCain led former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 36 percent to 27 percent, with Romney running third at 22 percent.
The margins of error in New York and Missouri were 3.3 percentage points, and in New Jersey it was 3.4 percentage points.
The key for candidates in both parties is to win delegates, who vote on the nominees at this summer's national party conventions. More than half of the total Democratic delegates are up for grabs on Tuesday, and about 40 percent of the Republican delegates.
Unlike Republicans, though, Democrats distribute delegates in proportion to their vote statewide and in individual congressional districts. That means candidates can come away with big chunks of delegates even in states they lose.
As a result, neither Obama nor Clinton are likely to deal a knockout blow on Tuesday, prolonging their battle for the nomination to later contests in February, or to March and beyond.
In contrast, most Republican contests are winner-take-all when awarding delegates, meaning a strong day by McCain could give him a commanding lead.
(Editing by Todd Eastham)
(For more about the U.S. political campaign, visit Reuters "Tales from the Trail: 2008" online at blogs.reuters.com |
