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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (103129)	2/3/2008 4:16:03 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

<its been a secular bear this entire decade> Not for financials, not for the SPX, and not for the DJIA. Not for most stocks, for that matter. I think the secular top probably ended with the credit bubble trouble that started mid-2007. You can even see where the Nasdaq has continued to climb its secular bull TL at a rate of 12-15% CAGR. The tech bubble was just a blowoff of the 3rd wave up. finance.yahoo.com The secular bear means giving up the 12-15% CAGR trendlines that all the indices have climbed for 30 years. We're just turning down into the secular bear IMO by every objective measure I've seen. `BC

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (103129)	2/3/2008 7:34:52 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 306849

The biggest differences this time appear to be interest rates are rock bottom and we are headed towards an inflationary up cycle as oppossed to the 1990's which was a period of disinflation and lower interest rates. I believe you are correct in looking at San Francisco. Along with Manhattan and London this should give us clues as to the future direction of RE across the globe. If these markets only correct another 10-15% from these levels in the next couple of years it will tell us a lot.. !970's was a great period for RE overall but horrible for financials and large cap stocks..