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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Dierks who wrote (25689)	2/4/2008 5:07:39 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

Its not that close IMO. Right now China could devastate Taiwan (with missile strikes, even if they leave it to conventional only missiles), but they couldn't easily take it even without US intervention. If they US did intervene any invasion attempt would be doomed. And its not like they are just a few years away. Also the loss of trade and investment would be devastating. If you have that, plus a loss in the attempt to take Taiwan, the regime would be hit hard, and would start worrying about its own stability. To take the type of economic losses they will face, they need to win, and they have to be fools if they think they can win now or soon.