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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (47992)	2/5/2008 11:49:16 AM
From: Katelew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 541374

My main concern is that politicians will not let the market adjust to it but will rather try subsidies, or even price controls. I think that way leads to disaster. A growing number of nations are doing just that right now with food prices. Peak oil, whenever it comes, will most likely be the same and even uglier.

To: TimF who wrote (47992)	2/5/2008 12:39:56 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 541374

The critical date for the US and other importers is not peak oil production, but peak oil exports. Oil exports will peak a lot earlier than production, and we are arguably already past peak oil exports. Exports determine world oil prices. OPEC countries subsidize internal oil consumption very generously (for example, gasoline costs less than a dollar a gallon in most of them), and most have rapidly growing, young populations. Their regimes are not perfect democracies, but they are in general responsive and sensitive to popular demands, so subsidies are not going away any time soon. The only option for the US right now is a crash program of conservation coupled with production from nuclear, coal, and renewable technologies.