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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tejek who wrote (370076)2/5/2008 10:20:26 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1575396
 
It may very well get more dense but Manhattan dense? I doubt it.

Manhattan is more constrained in size than LA and its population declined from 1910 to 1980 (its picked up since but is still well off the peak). Just having a limit to how spread out a city is doesn't mean its population density keeps growing for ever.
demographia.com

Since 1960 Los Angeles (the city itself not the whole metro area which has a much larger population) has officially gone from 2,479,015 to 3,849,378 (2006 data)

laalmanac.com
en.wikipedia.org

If it keeps growing at that rate (which I doubt, it might do so for awhile but not indefinitely) lets see how long it would take to have Manhattan's population density. Manhattan is almost 9.4 times as dense as LA. LA went up 55% in 46 years.

Since the growth rate won't stay precisely the same there is no need for great precision so I'll round off all the figures (making it 9 times the density, 50% growth, and 50 years).

So in 2056 LA would have 1.5 times its current density, in 2106 it would have 2.25 times the density, in 2156 it would have 3.375, in 2206 it would have 5.06, even in 2256 it would fall short only having 7.59

Of course a lower density than Manhattan could still support mass transit rather well, and to an extent it might even work (esp. buses) in LA now, but its only going to be a very tiny part of the transportation picture in LA, now matter how much of a priority local state and federal governments make it. (Even in Manhattan car transport is a big factor)

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As for other cities - These links discuss the economics of rail transport in Wisconsin.

ti.org

coyoteblog.com