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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (8825)	3/16/2008 7:42:40 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Where Are The Financials, Is A Bottom Near? W/r to #msg-24287073 and the comment 'one possibility is for SKF to put in a big pivot bottom in the 92 area , launch to complete a 3rd wave, with a 5th wave yet to come ...', 92 was a pivot low, and SKF does appear to be in a 3rd wave that is still in progress. It would be normal for SKF to form a parabola, if one connects the 'low' dots, before it tops, if this is impulsive action. I have revised the SKF goes parabolic chart only a tad, with the update here: SKF appears to be in the middle of a 3rd wave, in particular w/r to time. W/r to price it may be a bit passed that. The first mini parabola top for a 3rd wave may exceed 180. The anitithesis of SKF is the DJUSFN. More probably follow the BKX. If we chart the DJUSFN and the BKX we get the same result I think, but the DJUSFN is clearer. In a shorter term sense this is what I have for the DJUSFN: I have also previously reported on C. I tried a few call options at the 22 area, as this was a key fib. I quickly realized the TA and EW were not positive, so dumped out immediately on only a small pop. Staying away for now. I now think C goes yet much lower. In the longterm sense this is what I have for C: There are several important comments w/r to this LT chart: - C is in an apparent C of [2], a correction of very high degree. If one believes any if at all in EW they want to buy this bottom, w/o question. - Everyone has different views, but I subscribe to the theory that a correction of this degree will retrace the complete [1] up by a 'minimum' of 61 %. This is why I was so interested in the 61 % fib retrace area. - Another tenant that I subscribe to is that the [2] will at a minimum retrace the entire 5th wave up of the [1]. The 5th wave likely started at 14.4. Hence a reason I was so suspicious at the 22 area, and now it seems to have been confirmed. - Using the above tenants we can assume that probability for a hard bottom exists at the 14.4 area or a bit below. See the solid line at 14.4 to mark the beginning of the 5th of [1]. Secondarily to giving up the entire 5th of [1] I also think it likely the LT trendline I have drawn to be broken ever so slightly. - Given all the above I am now focused on the 12 area, yet watching ever closer. In a shorter term sense the EW I have for C is shown here: The shorter term C chart, my current ST EW, as well as LT view and SKF projections correlate with the above comments. I do think the end of the 3rd wave of C of [2] down will be followed by a very boisterous 4th of C (up). I will tell you I am tentatively thinking first of June area for a 3rd wave bottom, but am not focused on same. We do the charts and see. If the 4th wave starts early this summer, I think it will be followed by a very abrupt and hard move down late summer or early fall timeframe. In any case we have to see where the 4th starts, and after it does it will at some point be obvious. It appears to me that for those BKX followers, we could see a break of 50 on the BKX, before a final bottom. Why am I following this? Because ya want to buy things on the cheap, and imo there is an opportunity here, of extreme proportion. I think a big margin call is in progress, and just getting going. Margin users are speculators extraordinaire and often get severely punished, because they can not usually afford to sit it out. Eventually they have to capitulate. I may be wrong but my read of sentiment w/r to financials is that we may be entering that area. If so there will be other sectors that are affected, as selling will have to occur to meet these margin calls. Good Luck, I will update later. We are getting closer to the end, but I think the early birds have been and remain too early (no pun intended). I do know for fact there have been early birds, buying financials. So far all for not.