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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (29992)	2/6/2008 1:53:20 PM
From: Art Baeckel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78670

Paul, there is almost always pressure on a stock that is buying out another stock. GOOG is down because of the Yahoo deal. They are estimating that advertising will double over the next 5 years. Yahoo I believe has about 19% of the market v/s GOOG 66%. The reason GOOG is down around 500 is because of the threat that Microsoft has the money to push this and take away from GOOG percentage. GOOG is down about $100 over this. I'm long on GOOG at $519. I'm sure it will come back to the $570-$590 in the near future. If Microsoft gets away with this who knows what they may be able to do with their operating systems and softwares. I know GOOG is trying to get ATT to take a look at this Yahoo deal for one. GOOG isn't afraid of competition unless it's Microsoft. It could take awhile for the stock price for Microsoft to see the effects on the price. Their isn'that much of a decrease in price since the announcement. These are my opinions on what I've read. Good Luck with your decision................ ART

To: Paul Senior who wrote (29992)	2/6/2008 1:58:47 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78670

I am following MSFT. I almost bought it the day before the deal was announced. Lucky break. ;) I am very conflicted about the deal. From one point of view, MSFT would get some very valuable properties: Yahoo portal is still one of the top Internet sites, I am (and a lot of other people too I guess) still using Yahoo Finance and Mail, Flickr is a top property (that I hate, but a lot of people love), Yahoo Asian connections/stakes are apparently highly valued. On the other hand, I am not sure how much of these properties would be destroyed by MSFT ownership. There is no point for MSFT to have two email platforms, so Yahoo mail has to go or get converted into MSN/Hotmail. Portal may or may not stay depending on politics. Finance - same. Flickr is the only one guaranteed to stay if MSFT is not totally idiotic. I don't know much about the Yahoo "back end" solutions, such as ad sales platform and such and how much they are valuable and whether they will stay or get canned. So, IMHO, MSFT gets quite a bit, but the price tag is very high too. My bet is that they are overpaying. Still that does not answer the question if MSFT stock is a good value or not. Unfortunately, valuing MSFT recently was a tough exercise anyway IMO. It seemed undervalued, but market is totally set against Mr Softie and perhaps they are somewhat right. On the other hand, this MAY be the historic opportunity to buy MSFT cheap. I missed such opportunities with ADBE and ORCL and look where they are now... So I think I will hold my tiny MSFT position and not do anything... Unless the stock falls to $25 or something. Nice number grab BTW. ;)

To: Paul Senior who wrote (29992)	2/6/2008 11:48:12 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78670

MSFT , i still own some MSFT (more than a stub) and don't like the bid for Yahoo, but it's too late to sell, IMO. After the bid MSFT lost almost 105 of it's market cap - that's 28B$. Yahoo bid is for 45B$, so if you subtract the lost market cap from the bid you get Yahoo now for 17B$. if you further more subtract the cash and LT investment (a total of 6B$) in yahoo's balance sheet from the remaining 17B$ you get the yahoo business now for a mere 11B$. this is a simplistic way of viewing things, but if you believe that MSFT was worth 300B before the bid they are certainly worth 280B$ now. In my opinion they simply trying to buy Yahoo because they were weakened and they need to bulk up in the internet space to stay inn the game against Yahoo. If the deal get's consumed than the combined Yahoo and MSFT will still only have 1/2 the search market share of GOOG. This will not be enough to threaten GOOG dominance but it will be enough that if GOOG does mistakes, MSFT+YHOO combo could be able to exploit this assuming they have their own house in order.