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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (7911)	2/7/2008 8:42:10 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50500

re: ["selling more puts at what level? If you think 370 is support, selling puts in here could be deadly...so i know i am not understanding you."] My point is that with the cost of options ramping with this volatility - that "if" you want to re-enter at 400, or 370, or wherever... use those rich premiums to your advantage, and use put sales on stocks you want to own, to discount your re-entry, and/or to generate income on the trade if the strike price isn't hit. This is a gamblers trading environment here. I don't like to gamble... I like higher probability and better risk:reward envirnments to trade. The only thing I've done since January 16th... Message 24220142 ...is to ring the register and cash in calls above HUI 463, and on puts below HUI 434. I've still got both calls and puts deep outside the "HUI strangle" of 434-463 in both directions. I've been able to cash in “some” calls on the two little pops above 463 on the moves to 489 and 478, and on puts with the stop run/gap down move to 415, and on this move here, back down to the 420's. Imho, the most important trade to have made... is to have been in a position to be a big buyer in August, to have sold that pop, and then again to have been in a position to be a big buyer on the December pullback, and then to have cashed in on the January pop. The trade here and now - is on volatility itself. You've got to know when to cash in and exit, when to step in and load the truck... and then when to step aside, and put on a small trade on volatility itself...while waiting for a better risk:reward environment to re-enter in a large way (in either direction).... or, for the "enemy to make a major mistake" -- creating a discrepancy between price and risk. Right now... too much risk... no major discrepancy between price & risk. And definitely a time to be sitting in heavy cash, but still in, and with a trade on volatility itself - not direction. The high reward:low risk trade has come and gone. I'm just cashing in some volatility chips and waiting for someone to do something dumb... in either direction. That's my thinking anyway... And all this noise on whether we have inflation, or deflation is wrong headed. We have both... and we will continue to have both. It is not an either/or trade. ...more on that - later this weekend. Be safe out there, and watch out for bogus headlines coming from those wearing rubber noses and face paint. S.O.T.B.