To: jlallen who wrote (89791 ) 2/10/2008 12:23:02 PM From: sea_biscuit Respond to of 93284 And this is what the ICG says now.Baghdad/Damascus/Brussels, 7 February 2008: If the downturn in violence in Iraq is to continue, Muqtada al-Sadr’s unilateral ceasefire must urgently be converted into a comprehensive multilateral one that creates conditions for his movement to evolve into a legitimate political actor. Iraq’s Civil War, the Sadrists and the Surge,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the continued involvement until 2007 of the Sadrists and their Mahdi Army, the country’s biggest militia, in the brutal sectarian civil war and assesses the reasons behind their decision to freeze military activities. It argues that the ceasefire in place since August 2007 offers an opportunity for the movement’s full integration into the political sphere which ought not to be missed. “Muqtada’s motivations aside, his implementation of a ceasefire opens the possibility of a more genuine and lasting transformation of the Sadrist movement”, says Robert Malley, Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa Program Director. “The challenge is to seize the opportunity and transform his tactical adjustment into a longer-term strategic shift”.Muqtada al-Sadr’s decision to curb his movement is a major reason for the dramatic decline in bloodshed. It was a positive step, under U.S. and Iraqi military pressure and as a result of growing discontent within his Shiite base, but it is fanciful to expect the Mahdi Army’s defeat. Excessive pressure is likelier to trigger fierce resistance in Baghdad and an escalating intra-Shiite civil war in the south. Now that its leadership has denounced sectarian violence and seeks to impose greater discipline on its unruly base, every effort should be made to encourage the shift toward a non-violent political movement. The Sadrist leadership should ensure greater discipline and accountability within the ranks by prolonging and strictly enforcing the ceasefire and articulating a clear and comprehensive political program. The U.S. and the Iraqi government should narrowly circumscribe operations against the Mahdi Army and the Sadrist movement by focusing on legitimate military targets and Sadrist-manned patrols or checkpoints. They should tolerate non-military Sadrist activities and freeze recruitment into the Shiite sahwa (awakening), the U.S.-backed tribe - and citizen-based militia set up to fight the Mahdi Army. Instead they should concentrate on building a professional, non-partisan security force, integrating vetted Mahdi Army fighters. The Najaf-based clerics should allow Sadrists to visit religious sites in the holy cities as long as they are unarmed and show appropriate restraint.“Among Sadrist rank and file, impatience with the ceasefire is high and growing. They equate it with a loss of power and resources and eagerly await Muqtada’s permission to resume the fight, as early as this month”, says Peter Harling, Crisis Group’s Iraq, Syria and Lebanon Project Director. “The Sadrist leadership has resisted the pressure, but unless the U.S. and the Iraqi government alter their approach, this may not last”.