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To: KaiserSosze who wrote (3320)2/9/2008 9:06:06 AM
From: RockyBalboa  Respond to of 6370
 
It is evident that a few folks started a position in SIRF hoping just that, it is clearly in play. Money has to be
put someplace.


Why I am a sceptic: GPS, and SIRF was hot, for quite a time. Now with losing money and little visibility, ...?

If you want to see a recent example, which was a slightly different Semiconductor but in a lot of aspects like SIRF, try SGTL:
SGTL failed to become a leading supplier and went from red hot to chump and change The whole process took many years.
I was patient and quite lucky because I bought when it traded at cash value, which was $2 and I owned it for a little more than one month.

There´s enough reason why SIRF could do the same.
The article below clearly points how for how little those businesses are being acquired, GPS competitors, but also SGTL (including the cash, business nearly for free).
With 440MM Market cap SIRF is not exactly cheap.

What would an aquirer buy? IP? Maybe, but there are more brilliant minds out there. Strategic aquisition (before another buys it)? These days, firms hate buying two-legged goodwill...

thestreet.com

SAN FRANCISCO -- Sirf Technology's(SIRF - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) stock lost half of its value Tuesday, following an ugly quarterly report .

But the action may just be getting started.

It's no secret that GPS chips have been a hot commodity in recent months, with companies like Broadcom(BRCM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), NXP and Atheros(ATHR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) all making acquisitions in the sector.
...

Six weeks ago, Sirf had a roughly $1.5 billion market cap, making the firm a more expensive acquisition target than the slew of smaller, private GPS firms that exist, according to analysts.

With Tuesday's selloff though, Sirf's market value has now shrunk to $441 million. Whether that's cheap enough to draw a takeover bid remains to be seen.

Berger notes that potential buyers may hold out for even an even greater markdown. The increased competition in Sirf's market and the potential for further deterioration in its sales and earnings mean the stock could still see more downside.

"Somebody could look at Sirf and say, 'Wow it's $7.31, but if I wait three more months, I'll be able to bid for it starting at $5,'" says Berger.

....
.



To: KaiserSosze who wrote (3320)2/9/2008 9:25:16 AM
From: RockyBalboa  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6370
 
SGTL:

Cash 71MM
Enterprise value 35MM
Revenue ttm 127MM (and it improved at SGTL in Q3 2007 with recs of 41MM).
Takeout price at EV/Sales of 0.27

SGTL buyout came one year after they wrote off their goodwill (totalling 81MM) in Q1 2007.

SIRF:

EV: 294MM
Revenue ttm 329MM

Applying SGTL metrics would mean:
EV of 90MM
Cash 140MM
makes 230MM, shares out 64MM yields $3.60, give or take for SIRF.

Sirf will likely impair some or most of the aquired goodwill and other intangible assets (290MM).