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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: neolib who wrote (20245)	2/11/2008 2:45:39 PM
From: Thomas A Watson	Respond to of 36917

And why is this not credible to Well neoliar AKA ear2earfeces, you have been asked what is the mechanism for CO2 to drive temperature. What is the neoliar reply. What is wrong with this OISM explanation? GLOBAL WARMING HYPOTHESIS The greenhouse effect amplifies solar warming of the earth. Greenhouse gases such as H2O, CO2, and CH4 in the Earth's atmosphere, through combined convective readjustments and the radiative blanketing effect, essentially decrease the net escape of terrestrial thermal infrared radiation. Increasing CO2, therefore, effectively increases radiative energy input to the Earth's atmosphere. The path of this radiative input is complex. It is redistributed, both vertically and horizontally, by various physical processes, including advection, convection, and diffusion in the atmosphere and ocean. Figure 18: Qualitative illustration of greenhouse warming. "Present GHE" is the current greenhouse effect from all atmospheric phenomena. "Radiative effect of CO2" is the added greenhouse radiative effect from doubling CO2 without consideration of other atmospheric components. "Hypothesis 1 IPCC" is the hypothetical amplification effect assumed by IPCC. "Hypothesis 2" is the hypothetical moderation effect. When an increase in CO2 increases the radiative input to the atmosphere, how and in which direction does the atmosphere respond? Hypotheses about this response differ and are schematically shown in Figure 18. Without the water-vapor greenhouse effect, the Earth would be about 14 ºC cooler (81). The radiative contribution of doubling atmospheric CO2 is minor, but this radiative greenhouse effect is treated quite differently by different climate hypotheses. The hypotheses that the IPCC (82,83) has chosen to adopt predict that the effect of CO2 is amplified by the atmosphere, especially by water vapor, to produce a large temperature increase. Other hypotheses, shown as hypothesis 2, predict the opposite \u2013 that the atmospheric response will counteract the CO2 increase and result in insignificant changes in global temperature (81,84,85,91,92). The experimental evidence, as described above, favors hypothesis 2. While CO2 has increased substantially, its effect on temperature has been so slight that it has not been experimentally detected. Figure 19: The radiative greenhouse effect of doubling the concentration of atmospheric CO2 (right bar) as compared with four of the uncertainties in the computer climate models (87,93). The computer climate models upon which "human-caused global warming" is based have substantial uncertainties and are markedly unreliable. This is not surprising, since the climate is a coupled, non-linear dynamical system. It is very complex. Figure 19 illustrates the difficulties by comparing the radiative CO2 greenhouse effect with correction factors and uncertainties in some of the parameters in the computer climate calculations. Other factors, too, such as the chemical and climatic influence of volcanoes, cannot now be reliably computer modeled. In effect, an experiment has been performed on the Earth during the past half-century \u2013 an experiment that includes all of the complex factors and feedback effects that determine the Earth's temperature and climate. Since 1940, hydrocarbon use has risen 6-fold. Yet, this rise has had no effect on the temperature trends, which have continued their cycle of recovery from the Little Ice Age in close correlation with increasing solar activity. Not only has the global warming hypothesis failed experimental tests, it is theoretically flawed as well. It can reasonably be argued that cooling from negative physical and biological feedbacks to greenhouse gases nullifies the slight initial temperature rise (84,86). The reasons for this failure of the computer climate models are subjects of scientific debate (87). For example, water vapor is the largest contributor to the overall greenhouse effect (88). It has been suggested that the climate models treat feedbacks from clouds, water vapor, and related hydrology incorrectly (85,89-92). The global warming hypothesis with respect to CO2 is not based upon the radiative properties of CO2 itself, which is a very weak greenhouse gas. It is based upon a small initial increase in temperature caused by CO2 and a large theoretical amplification of that temperature increase, primarily through increased evaporation of H2O, a strong greenhouse gas. Any comparable temperature increase from another cause would produce the same calculated outcome. oism.org'oism.org

To: neolib who wrote (20245)	2/11/2008 5:15:11 PM
From: Brumar89	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36917

deny the blatantly obvious .... I have not seen one credible anti AGW climate argument There you go denying the blatantly obvious.

To: neolib who wrote (20245)	2/12/2008 12:06:47 AM
From: average joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36917

Freezing to death in Kabul 08 Feb 2008 13:30:00 GMT Source: Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) - Norway IDPs recently arrived in Kabul tell NRC Secretary General Elisabeth Rasmussen about their needs NRC/Astrid Sehl Thousands of men, women and children who have fled the war in South Afghanistan are now struggling to survive the freezing winter in the country's capital, Kabul. More than 500 persons are estimated to have died in Afghanistan's worst winter in over thirty years. Heavy snowfalls and temperatures below minus 25 degrees Celcius have caused fatalities of around 70 000 livestock in West Afghanistan. When NRC's Secretary General Elisabeth Rasmusson visited Kabul this week, she was met by desperate parents who called for help for their children. People wearing thin clothing and some with bare feet, were hurrying past the simple tents in the city of 1800 meter altitude. In one of the tents, was the body of a man who had tragically died the night before. In another tent, two young sisters sat on the snow inside while they were starring out in the air. In the streets behind them, cars were driving by. "People are fleeing to Kabul fearing for their lives, but they are dying in front of our eyes when they get here because they lack shelter, food and health care. This horrible situation is evidence of the tragic humanitarian consequences of the conflict in Afghanistan," Rasmusson says. She calls upon the Afghan government, the UN and international community to respond immediately to the crisis. Nobody knows how many thousands of people may have fled the fighting in the South to Kabul during the winter. At least, 160 families were doing their best to try and keep warm and find food in the camp Rasmusson went to. A widow and mother of three spoke of her despair in not knowing how she would manage to keep her children alive. "The situation for the children is of special concern. They lack food, warm clothing, shelter, security, education and suffer from a traumatizing situation. Trafficking is also alleged to be a major problem in Kabul, with children in the camps at risk," she says. NRC is distributing plastic sheeting, mattresses and blankets to 200 families in the area and is planning to expand the emergency response in coordination with international and government partners. Rasmusson underlines that much of Afghanistan today should no longer be looked upon as being in a state of reconstruction, when insurgency and active conflict dominates a large proportion of the country. "Donors should balance military and humanitarian funding, which should be directed to independent aid agencies in areas where there is the highest need and vulnerability in the Afghan population," Rasmusson said. It is estimated that more than 37 000 persons have been displaced in the South and East in 2007, as a result of the armed conflict between the insurgents, government forces and Nato's International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF). 129 000 persons are long term internally displaced. But these numbers are difficult to assess, given the lack of ability of NRC and other organisations to assess the situation on the ground. Lack of humanitarian space is a huge concern and makes the situation even worse for the civilians. Due to poor security , UNHCR lacks access to 45 per cent of the country going into 2008. nrc.no