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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (3347)	2/13/2008 8:02:31 AM
From: Pam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4590

Intel used to have a process technology node advantage - until late 2007 when Spansion caught up. Form most of 2007, Intel was ramping 65nm, while Spansion was ramping 90nm. Only in late 2008 [Edit: 2007] Spansion started ramping 65nm (some on 300mm). So the it is unclear if SPSN had a cost advantage. Mirrorbit advantage was nullified by process technology disadvantage. Now, in 2008, Spansion is on process node parity (for the most advanced products), has Mirrorbit, and also has 300mm advantage. Seems similar to what happened in the NAND industry. Samsung was the node leader in SLC NAND and Toshiba/Sandisk would counter Samsung's cost reduction from node leads by doing MLC NAND at a more mature node. Eventually, Toshiba/Sandisk caught up with Samsung and now they have moved past them and Samsung had no option but to pursue MLC NAND, along with SLC NAND, to protect their margins. There is no question that Spansion has a better cost structure with 300mm fab ramping (still need to figure out how does 20kwpm compare with legacy 200mm capacity) and their lower cost implementation of NOR using MirrorBit and Quadbit. They will prevail IF the industry behaves rationally but what if they act irrationally, just as in the past? Spansion needs to remain solvent longer than other players can be irrational!