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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (11875)	2/13/2008 11:00:37 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12410

Investing/trading is primarily a matter of common sense. There was absolutely nothing in this mornings retail sales report that I didn't know already from walking around Best Buy, Circuit City and Staples with my sons, and Bloomingdales and Neiman Marcus with my wife. I know consumers are just primarily buying necessities like food and energy. The Bond Market has been pricing in Armageddon so I went short the 30 year via RRPIX (a while back) and have been increasing my short position on rallies. I see this short position as a nice winner as the year unfolds and a tremendous winner further out. <<If you are genuinely scared, you can't buy and probably shouldn't.>> Not true. I always scale into GDX when the Gold/XAU ratio hits 5.33 and the ISM is in recessionary mode. It's rare that the Gold/XAU ratio gets to that level, but when it does it usually signifies panic selling as a result of margin calls. That's the time to buy. If you have the courage to buy at that time, the average return the following year is well over 50%. I'm watching the Japanese small cap market closely here. This market is trading close to book value and very few have any interest in this market whatsoever. I see one more sell off and then I pull the trigger. I like DFJ, but would wait for a 3-5% correction from yesterday's close to buy. I listened to the ACGL conference call yesterday and was quite impressed when the CEO responded to a question (from an Analyst) of how big the subrime losses will be to the industry. He said that "it is too early to tell but speculation is not good here". This indicates how shrewd the management is at ACGL and is reflected in the fact that they beat earnings estimates by over 30 cents due to wise investment strategies. "Speculation" is not what a shareholder wants from ACGL here. This stock is a screaming buy between $66-$68. Patience is a virtue when it comes to investing/trading. My purpose in posting is to make people think about new things. I'm not looking for disciples or for anyone to agree with me. Actually, I prefer that others disagree with me and critique my views so I can learn.