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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (8846)	2/13/2008 1:23:10 AM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

It's all good...mild snow so far, very mild. Winds have been nasty though...had some clocked at 92 not far away during the last storm, yowzer. Was about 65mph gusts at my place NG!! I figure by the Summer the other shoe drops in the credit markets. I'm optimistic now that some of the smart hedge guys were in DC today telling them how to fix it,....OR they can let it play out so they can scoop up some stuff in a fire sale <GGGG> I think it ends badly for a few.....not everyone. Here was the most meaningful news I saw today: Quarterly Profit Up 75% at Molson Coors nytimes.com

To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (8846)	2/13/2008 8:58:43 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

AG, You are living the good life with all that snow and cold ;-)... US Depart. or Agriculture is indicating an increase in Wheat and Bean acerage to be planted this coming year, which is a good thing as demand is surging in China, India, Brazil, Indonesia etc. John -------------------------------------------------- By BILL TOMSON February 13, 2008; Page C5 The U.S. Department of Agriculture is predicting that farmers will plant 88 million acres of corn this year -- a drop from the 93.6 million planted in 2007 -- but then they are expected to bring acreage back up above the 90-million-acre mark for the next several years. The long-term "baseline" forecast released by the USDA yesterday sees planted-corn acreage rising back to 91 million acres in 2009 and then 93 million acres in 2010. The forecast for 2017, the last year included in the baseline projection, is for 92 million acres. The report had little impact on corn prices, which fell as weakness was seen in several commodity markets. Chicago Board of Trade nearby March corn fell 5.75 cents to $4.97 a bushel. Unlike corn, a lot more wheat and soybeans are expected to be planted this year thanks to record-breaking future prices for crops planted in 2007. Farmers aren't just switching corn acres to wheat and soybeans. They are putting fallow or pasture land into wheat and soybean production in states like Kansas and Texas to take advantage of strong prices, USDA economist David Stallings said. There were 246.5 million acres of corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, cotton, sorghum, barley and oats last year. That overall figure is forecast to reach ,252.6 million acres in 2008 but then fall off over following years. "We expect wheat prices to come back down," Mr. Stallings said. Unlike the forecasts for corn acreage, the expectations for corn yields do nothing but increase. The USDA baseline shows farmers getting an average of 155.3 bushels per acre this year, then rising to 157.3 bushels in 2009 and 159.3 bushels in 2010. The forecast is for 173.3 bushels per acre by 2017. Rising corn yields are essential for ethanol production to increase in the U.S. because refiners rely almost solely on the crop for fuel. More and more of the crop will be going to the government-subsidized alternative fuel over the coming years, according to the USDA report that was finished in November as a basis for its annual budget. "Ethanol production in the United States has increased rapidly over the past several years, from less than 3 billion gallons in 2003 to over 6 billion gallons in 2007," the report said. "Expansion in the industry is projected to continue, particularly over the next few years, exceeding 12 billion gallons by 2010." But the forecast is dated in that it doesn't take into account the energy bill recently passed by Congress, which mandates the production of 15 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol annually by 2015. Ethanol refiners are estimated to have to use about 5.8 billion bushels of corn to produce that much fuel

To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (8846)	3/3/2008 6:30:38 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

So funny Jim Cramer just used the exact same argument that I made here about 5 years ago regarding gold stocks: if you add up the market capitalization of all of the gold companies, in his case he was saying the total cap of the AMEX gold index it comes to 200 billion. Then compare to the market cap of XOM at 469 billion, MSFT and GE also having significant market capitalizations. I've got to see if I can find my post from it seems like 5 years ago, highlighting this. ;-) I'm kind of thinking when gold goes north of 1000 that it generates so much media attention that it creates a short term top. But I'm very bullish on commodities over the next 1 year, 3 years and 5 years. John