Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (29383)	2/13/2008 12:54:38 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218809

Like you I am circumspect about those who think they are "in the clear". But it's an ill wind that blows nobody good. Warren Buffett was ready and waiting and is making insurance offers for bonds that are difficult to refuse, though one company has done so [for now]. When push comes to shove and deficits to debacles, debtors to disasters, counter parties to carnage, it's difficult not to get some goo on one's face. I fully expect to take a pounding in US$ and Au value this year in relation our house as $100bn of mortgagors wonder why they have borrowed money to "own" a highly leveraged house they don't need and can't afford when Japanese lenders take their money back when the term of the loan is up and the borrowers have to refinance at higher interest rates. In US$ and Au, I expect a halving in value of our house. If it was just me involved, I'd sell and become a nomadic renter of palaces instead. But nobody is offering a guarantee that it will halve. These things are not inevitable - just highly likely. So it's comfortable to just sit tight and avoid the transaction costs of selling and buying later. I thought NZ house prices were ridiculous two years ago and they carried on up. That's how wrong I was. Maybe they'll do the same in some anti-gravity financial relativity theory magical manoeuvres. Meanwhile, POTUS and Congress are having a lolly-scramble of $000s for Americans to go shopping at WalMart to save the economy. I don't understand how that will save the economy. When I have been short of money and perhaps even owing quite a lot, I have never found that I make my economic circumstances good by going on a spending spree. Not that I have tried it. Tax cuts are good, but only if they reflect reduced spending by government rather than the deceit of financial relativity theory dilutive acceleration to inflationary hyperspeed. I didn't see deflation looming over the horizon, but maybe it's there and this is Big Ben doing a pre-emptive strike with fleets of helicopters as promised long ago. As Warren Buffett said long ago, when the tide goes out, we see who isn't wearing bathing suits [and who has hairy legs]. Mqurice PS: I heard a theory that the whole menagerie of leveraged derivatives piled on inverted doubled or nothing debt instruments and financial relativity theory future-market shenanigans is in the end founded on the value of a mud hut somewhere in a village in India. [That's not the actual description but it was something like that]