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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (29390)	2/13/2008 4:51:53 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218697

Elroy, you obviously were not a keen reader of my posts way back in the early 21st century or you'd know that I was one of the few who denied that there were any significant WMDs and that the USA was barking up the wrong tree and that it was about oil and vengeance and one thing and another. <Obviously you were one of those impressed by his lies > I wasn't explaining what I thought in that previous post, I was explaining how I think most Americans saw the situation [whether they were gullible or not is another issue and whether they were deliberate lies or blunders is another matter]. Heck, way back in the 1980s I predicted the middle east war not specifically where or when, but that "a bullet through the middle east would do wonders for oil industry profits". I was not in the slightest surprised that April Glaspie was instructed to tell Saddam who had his army on the border of Kuwait, ready to roll, that the USA was not taking a position on disputes. Nor that Saddam took that as a green light. Nor that having "taken the bait" he was told that he could not in fact grab the whole of Kuwait. Nor that the USA and UN got stuck in and attacked him. When Saddam asked whether sanctions would be withdrawn if he withdrew, but they were not, it was apparent that keeping Iraq's oil off the market was considered a good idea. As you can imagine, that would push prices up for alternative supplies. Which had the happy effect of making oil company profits very good. A decade rolled by and 911 arrived. Meanwhile, Saddam and the USA remained in conflict with Saddam funding attacks in Israel and apparently arranging and attack on King George I, Laura Bush and co, which you could imagine would annoy King George II. People don't do that and get away with it [even if that attack was in revenge for years of attack on Saddam's power]. I was surprised that Saddam didn't realize how intent King George II was on attacking Iraq - I thought a good move on Saddam's part would be to invite the UN in, establish a regional UN conference for middle east stability, oil production with revenue share with UN to help regional stability, establishment of UN regional headquarters in Iraq. He could have made it difficult for the USA to justify continued aggression against him/Iraq. But no, silly Saddam was imprisoned in his own personality and didn't give an inch, though he conceded he did NOT have WMDs [which the USA and others took to be a bluff - so they say, according to the disbanded Office of Disinformation -- giggle]. The war then progressed according to my expectations, down to the immediate defeat, the prompt transition to guerrilla insurrection and the number of USA casualties. I even had it right as to where Saddam would be hiding [near Tikrit, on the banks of the river = his childhood stamping grounds where he would have hidey huts]. Amazing eh? And you can read it all in SI if you want to go scavenging back through thousands of posts. Where I wrote that the war would last 110 minutes [one Globalstar orbit] that wasn't a literal time of course as it would take a lot longer than that to drive to Baghdad, it was a literary device meaning "really fast" as was the case with Iraqi soldiers surrendering as soon as it was safe to do so [not getting shot in the back by their bosses] and running for it in their undies. Helen Clark's funding of killers of children and others is pretty horrible. The carnage in NZ isn't on the same scale as in Iraq, but when you are the child slowly murdered, it is no doubt as painful and horrific. There is a good case for a Stolen Generation of children in New Zealand right now, to rescue them from the horrors of their alleged "caregivers". In fact, there are lots of "stolen children" in government care as wards of the state in New Zealand. Mqurice

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (29390)	2/13/2008 7:38:07 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218697

this just in in-tray fm moolah manager Right now we are seeing irrational exurberence in the world financial markets around the fact that the banks (can be inter exchanged with dykes for this little story) , have gone to a little boy (interject soveriegn wealth funds here) , to plug what is the first cracks in the breaking dykes ! The reality is that all those people living happily behind the dyke should be investing in scuba gear and boats. The soveriegn funds have limited funds with which to support the ailing financial institutions , yet I hear so many layman refer to them as a panacea. The scale of the issues facing the banks and financial community are just too big . I think it is only now, that in abu dhabi or beijing, they are realizing that they have been "had", no different than anyone of us that has invested in a "promote" to find out that the business was not quite as healthy as we thought it was. When citi, ml, ubs pass the hat around - who will step up next time. Or if they do , on what terms ? I only hope that the big banks can make a lot of profit in the next 2-3 years , and raise more capital - in order to reinforce their tier 1 ratios and be ready for basle 2. In my industry , ship owners borrow tens of billions per year from shipping banks - who are only just waking up to fact that they have limited funds, and that these funds have a cost. Until recently the german banks had never considered their own funding costs , or credit adequacy tests (in fact they did not need to when had a big brother standing behind in form of state guarantees). They just made more and more loans , and took the margin and booked it as profit (the good thing is that they have also been doing same for commercial real estate ! ). Well today they now find themselves funding at a higher margin then these outstanding shipping loans (commonly called a loss) ! I am going to guess that if the rating agencies really get to look into some of these banks , they may start to question the true quality of the assets ! Well enough doom and gloom ! And I am still shorting the financials ! For I fully expect the second wave to come in next months.