Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (3360)	2/14/2008 1:05:19 AM
From: Pam	Respond to of 4590

Are you talking about total capacity or cost of one vs. the other. I was talking about total 200mm vs. 300mm capacity. They said they are planning to add about 20kwpm at SP1. If they do that, what %ge of their captive capacity will be coming from 300mm wafers? As for the reduction in cost from 300mm wafers, I saw the slides from previous ER where they have provided some information on cost reduction. That's why I am anxious to see the Numonyx deal close - finally. Numonyx - once a standalone company - will have a cap of how long and how irrational they can be. I agree. We will have to wait and see how Numonyx looks like when they are spun off. Irrational behaviors can prevail for long periods of time. Just look at DRAM industry. In 2007, DRAM chips had ASP declines of 85% and cost declines of 30-40%! MU has had negative OMs for last 4 Q's and is going to have negative margins for another 4 Q's and yet they are in business! One thing about the delay, there is a probability (however small) that the deal will just completely fall apart, and Intel + STM just decide to pull the plug, sell assets in a firesale, and take the hit of the layoffs. Like I said, the probability of a complete collapse of the deal is extremely small, but it grows with every delay. As time goes on, Spansion technology advantage grows. The bigger percentage of Spansion output is 65nm Mirrorbit (or Quad bid), some on 300mm, the further behind Numonyx will be. Anything is possible but I think, Numonyx will eventually happen. Both, INTC and STM are committed to this spin off. They are not interested in continuing with NOR business and would like to salvage whatever they can with the spin off. Banks have tightened their lending policies so it could take some time and some revaluation of assets, but it will happen.