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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (49025)	2/13/2008 11:01:15 AM
From: Lane3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 543059

McCain is still making the facile assumption that Iraqi security forces and politicians will magically transform themselves into competent, honest grownups who won't tear their country in half absent a foreign occupier to stop them. There's at least a fair chance that they would given enough time. Whether it's worth the time and effort would be a good question, but it seems to me that in, say, twenty years, they could be functional. I don't think we can say they never will.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (49025)	2/13/2008 11:06:16 AM
From: Sultan	Respond to of 543059

Obviously, US would want a base in Iraq.. One of the reasons for the war.. I wonder what would happen if US was asked to remove their presence completely.. Some thing along the lines of what happened in Saudi Arabia if I understand correctly what transpired there.. Too bad peak oil has not played out already.. If there was no oil in the region, all of a sudden none of the pious posturing of suffering masses and democracy would matter.. It is all about dwindling dollar and cent I think..

To: Dale Baker who wrote (49025)	2/13/2008 2:46:49 PM
From: epicure	Respond to of 543059

It's also true that there were almost no hostilities after Americans occupied Japan and Germany. I was amazed at how little violence there was. Both countries were utterly demoralized, and ready to accept defeat and participate in their reconstruction. That cannot be said for Iraq- which makes it a nasty deal for us, as "occupiers". Add on to that the fact that Iraq has no experience with a modern effective democracy or republic, and you've got a nightmare. IMO we stick a fork in it, and call it done.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (49025)	2/13/2008 4:46:47 PM
From: Cogito	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 543059

Dale - I heard an NPR interview with a retiring US Army Lieutenant Colonel yesterday. He was billed an expert on counterinsurgency. The things he said that really struck me were that insurgencies are "only" successful 40% of the time, and that successfully prosecuting a counterinsurgency takes, on average, ten years. Thus, he said, we are nearing the halfway points in Iraq and Afghanistan, and will probably win if we stick it out. I don't find it particularly encouraging to think that we would need to spend another five years in each of those places to have a 60% chance of achieving our aims. - Allen