To: tejek who wrote (64034 ) 3/25/2008 2:39:37 PM From: TimF Respond to of 90947 Averting a Crisis By the Editors The journalistic consensus of the moment is that we are in the middle of an economic crisis. But it is not clear that we are even in a recession. It is worth remembering that financial commentators have predicted ten of the last four recessions. In the winter of 1995-96, the chatter was about downsizing. Republican politicians accused President Clinton of causing a “middle-class crunch.” In 1998, the worry was about “Asian contagion” spreading to our financial markets, and the federal bailout for the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management was supposedly a sign of troubles to come. The price of housing has been flat or dropping for a year now, and the economy has kept growing. The last few months’ worth of jobs numbers have been disappointing, and probably mean that we are having sluggish growth. But the numbers were just as bad in early 2003, and they did not signal a recession then. The housing bust is in part the result of misguided government policies. Restrictions on homebuilding have made the market less responsive to price signals, and thus more volatile. The Federal Reserve, by keeping monetary policy too loose during the boom, encouraged inflation in that market. We understand that politicians feel the need to “do something.” But what they most need to do is get out of the way of a market adjustment. Housing prices need to fall far enough for people to start buying again. People who cannot afford to own homes should go back to renting. The Federal Reserve, too, should be careful not to make things worse. It loaned the money for J. P. Morgan Chase to buy out the brokerage house Bear Stearns. That intervention may have made sense as a way of stopping a panic-driven run on Bear Stearns. The Fed’s new “lending facility” will be worthwhile only on two conditions: that it be used sparingly and temporarily, and that it serve as a substitute for the ever-looser monetary policy that Wall Street has been demanding for the last year. The Fed’s defenders argue that it makes no sense to tighten money just because oil prices are rising, and they have a point. But it is time to announce that the Fed is not going to loosen money any further. Just as homebuyers need to see that housing prices have hit bottom, so do would-be borrowers need to know that interest rates are not going to be driven yet lower. Republican politicians should meanwhile avoid the temptation to lean on the Fed to pump up growth this year at the cost of inflation in years to come. If the Fed inflates the currency and Democrats allow a tax increase, we will be back to the unhappy policy mix of the 1970s, the one that produced the stagflation of that era. Republicans ought to be guarding against that possibility and standing instead for growth. But that is only half their job. Much of the country thought we were in a recession even when the economic indicators showed that growth was strong. Wages have been flat during this boom, a victim of rising health-care costs. The extra cost has not bought improved security. Republicans have policies that can address the public’s anxieties. They will have to talk about them day in and day out, recession or no recession.article.nationalreview.com