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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (56542)	5/1/2008 10:14:37 PM
From: loantech	Respond to of 78411

Claude this guy seem pretty good: 321gold.com Elliott Wave Gold Update XIX Alf Field 1 May, 2008 There is a strong probability that the correction in the gold market from the $1033 peak of 17 March 2008 is complete. This view is based on (i) the fact that the anticipated decline of 16% in this correction has been achieved and (ii) that all the minor waves required to complete the correction are now in place. The low in the cash gold market on 30 April 2008 was $861.8, a decline of 16.6% from the peak level of $1033.90 on 17 March 2008. In the Comex active month, gold declined from $1015.5 to $868.2, a decline of 14.5%. In the London PM fixings the decline has been from $1011.2 to $871.0, a fall of 13.9%. In Update 18 it was postulated that the current ongoing financial crisis might result in a slightly smaller decline than the anticipated 16% in the PM fixings, which seems to have occurred. All the minor waves required to complete the correction are displayed in the following chart. Thus with all the minor waves in place and the magnitude of the decline being of adequate proportions, there is a high probability that the correction (being Large Wave II) is complete. (Click on image to enlarge) Data updated to 30 April 2008. As will become apparent from the detailed analysis of the minor waves, there is a small possibility of a slightly lower target price of $855 in the Comex active month being achieved. This would have to happen almost immediately if it is going to occur at all. It is accorded a low probability of occurring. The full analysis of the correction, being Large Wave II is set out below: It is interesting to note that the decline in Small C of $82.9 is very close to 61.8% of the Small A decline of $137.1, a common relationship between A and C waves, adding credibility to the contention that the correction is complete. The following analysis of the minor waves in Small C is constructive: Note that the two corrective waves, minor ii and minor iv, declining $21.6 and $13.1 respectively, have a Fibonacci (61.8%) relationship, which is quite normal. Minor waves i and iii declined $43.0 and $44.4 respectively. If minor v were to also decline by $43 (the same was minor i) then the target for the end of the correction would have been $855.4 ($898.4 - $43.0 = $855.4). This is why the possibility of an immediate decline to $855 was floated above. In all likelihood, the $30.2 decline in minor v will be quite adequate and there will be no need to go below $868.2 in this correction. (Click on image to enlarge) Data Updated to 30 April 2008. In the London PM gold fixings, the 61.8% relationship between Small C and Small A is even more precise than in the Comex Futures. London PM Gold fixings: Small A is from $1011.2 to $887.7 - a decline of $123.5 (-12.2%). Small C is from $946.7 to $871.0 - a decline of $75.7 (-8.0%). A 61.8% proportion of the Small A decline of $123.5 is $76.3, which is extremely close to the actual decline of $75.7 in Small C. It could hardly be more precise. These clear relationships between Small A and Small C in both Comex Futures and the London PM fixings strongly supports the contention that the correction from $1033 in March 2008 has been completed. If this analysis proves to be correct, then Large Wave III of Major Wave THREE will commence immediately and should be an extremely vigorous upward movement. Alternative Count: As has been pointed out on several occasions in the past, corrections can be extremely complex and we need to keep in mind the possibility that the correction to date is just Small A, with a strong rally (Small B) and a subsequent decline (Small C) to come to complete Large II. This is assessed as having a much lower probability than the contention that Large II has already been completed. "Good-bye Kiss": Typically when markets breakout of large bases to higher levels, the tendency is for the price level to retract to the breakout level, giving that level a "good-bye kiss" before heading higher. In January 1980 the gold price reached $850 in the cash markets and $887 in the Futures markets. The breakout above the $850/$887 level recently, followed by the rise to a new all time high of $1033, required a price retraction to the $850/$887 level to give it a "good-bye kiss." That has now occurred and we can probably look forward to a rise to new all time highs. 1 May, 2008 Alf Field

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (56542)	6/14/2008 3:55:25 PM
From: loantech	Respond to of 78411

What do you think Claude: Sunday, May 25, 2008 Emerging Jr. Gold Producers Ranked -- Market Cap to Reserves Method ERRATA: The MI&I assumption for Gold Resource in the original post was incorrect. They have zero MI&I. However, they do have an internal gold equivalent (GE) resource estimate of 773,000 ounces. This post has been adjusted to reflect the GE resource for Gold Resource. Thanks Doug for the comment on this mistake. 8:36pm Monday, May 27, 2008. Another one of the techniques I use to value emerging junior gold miners is to identify their relative value based on measured, indicated, and inferred (MI&I) reserves and market capitalization (MC). Dividing MC by MI&I provides a dollar amount per ounce of reserves metric useful for comparison of companies. This is just a first step and can be misleading about the valuation of companies who end up with considerably more potential gold reserves than currently reflected in Canada's National Instrument 43-101. 43-101 is a rule developed by the Canadian Securities Administrators that govern the definition of resources and reserves. This definition is generally less strict than the SEC's proven and probable reserves and, in my opinion, a better reflection of company gold reserves. That said, Jaguar Mining only has 1.3 million ounces of gold MI&I, yet management believe their properties may have up to 10 million ounces. Companies like San Gold, Jinshan, Gold-Ore, Metanor, and others also can be reasonably expected to have larger reserves of gold than reported. As these companies continue to prove up gold reserves and the share price remains stable, they would become even more undervalued. Another limitation of the MI&I is it does not include the value of polymetallic reserves sometimes found with gold deposits, including silver, zinc, copper and other metals. These non-gold reserves can be used to offset the production cost of mining and milling gold. This quantitative valuation technique complements my earlier cash flow multiple valuation and is only part of my overall assessment of these companies. Qualitative factors like political risk, currency exchange risk, property rights risk, remote site risk, single mine risk, operational risk, and management competence risk are also important considerations in evaluation emerging junior gold mining producers. The following is my analysis of 15 emerging gold producers using a market capitalization divided by measured, indicated, and inferred gold reserves based on closing share prices on May 23, 2008. The lower the dollar value, the more undervalued the stock is relative to the others. As a metric for valuing these companies using the MC/MI&I, it is interesting that a recent acquisition of a junior valued the gold reserves at about $280 per ounce. Other recent buyouts have valued gold reserves at about $200 per ounce. My sense is that any company with MC/MI&I below $100 per ounce could be considered a "deep value" emerging junior gold producer, especially if they are quickly ramping up gold production. COMPANY...........MC/MI&I Kinbauri Gold......$25 Gold-Ore Res.......$29 ATW Ventures.......$55 Metanor Res........$84 W. GoldFields......$93 Jinshan Gold.......$99 MDN Inc............$105 Apollo Gold........$126 Minefinders........$135 Capital Gold.......$142 San Gold Res.......$151 Aurizon Mines......$208 Gold Resource......$276* Jaguar Mining......$290 Alamos Gold........$468 * internal gold equivalent resource estimate This is another way to think about investments in undervalued emerging gold producer stocks. I hope this is useful for readers. Best, Gold Stock Strategist ======================== goldstockstrategist.com