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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobs10 who wrote (3412)	2/16/2008 12:02:57 PM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4590

@Bob " If SPSN had gone to 4k WSPW there would have been a much greater chance of excess capacity, but with 2K WSPW they can probably use all the new capacity and still maintain ASPs. " Keep in mind, that SPSN goes heavily away now from TSMC. They will replace 200mm/90nm TSMC stuff with own 300mm 65nm stuff, which could be seen in the presentation slides. On the one side, SP1 will cost money, sure, on the other hand, they don't have to pay TSMC. Net should be a "loss", as SP1 has to ramp, but I hope the crossover could be reached in Q2 already. Bob yes, the last US data look very very weak, I wouldn't be surprised, if we could read in a few weeks, that new data show, that the US is already in a recession. I think expansive consumer gods will suffer first hand, which means, that I don't see big problems in the handset market. Could be, that RIMM sells fewer Blackberries or Apple less very expansive Iphones, but the overall market will grow, thats my feeling. And this will go on in China and India especially and from the latest readings, it seems, that Africa is also in a position to start a very fast growth story with more and more low-end phones reach good price points for that region. I don't know, how contracts are in the US, in germany you normally have a 2-year contract. After that date, you have ALWAYS the chance to get a new phone, so every customer instantly gets a new one after 2 years -> in germany we have more phones than people -> don't know the correct number, probably 100Mio. -> replacement every 2 years, roughly 40-50mio. new phones per year just in germany with 80mio. people. I assume, that we could see the same in a few years in china too. 1300Mio. people -> 600-800Mio. phones with a 2 year replacement cycle => 300-400mio. phones per year alone in China => add 200Mio. for India and you are at 500-600mio. for these 2 countries alone. The world is really going to a phone production around 1500mio./year in a few years. BUGGI