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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (4371)	2/18/2008 8:43:31 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71446

What exactly is FXY? FWIW I used todays rebound in the DX to sell near 76.50. Actually a cheap and handy contract trading on Nybot. Cost, 1.20 size just 1k USX units.

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (4371)	2/18/2008 8:53:33 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 71446

Ah ok that is the USDJPY FX rate wrapped into a cheesy ETF, right? Not meant to offend you in any way, ...perhaps it is cheaper than IBs proprietary Forex Cash facility, commission wise.

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (4371)	2/18/2008 9:45:23 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71446

Dollar - Bernanke Breaks The Buck Written by Boris Schlossberg, Senior Currency Strategist and John Kicklighter, David Rodriguez. Currency Analysts dailyfx.com "However, perhaps the most important release last week was the miss in the TICS data which printed at 56.5 versus 73.5 expected. The capital flows were substantial enough to offset the shrinking Trade deficit, but the data was for December and it will be interesting to see if capital flows begin to contract in the wake of January’s turbulence in the equity markets. As we’ve noted many times before the financing of the US Trade deficits has been a non-story for many years as capital flows have been more than sufficient. However, if the mismatch between TICS and Trade deficit becomes persistent, the whole focus of currency trading will shift from concerns about economic growth to worries about structural viability of the US economy." Another little note - the main TICS source for the past 3 months, contributing to more than 2/3 of the flows: London and the Caribbean . In other words, we are buying the buck. Gulp! My main question: Will the tresuries and the buck tanking simultaneously lead to WTF stock market rally from Hell? Answer: maybe Yes, but more likely No. One needs to be very careful (see the thread head - what happens during a currency crisis). It may also lead to a crash. I'm watching 1330 for spoos as a potential trigger to get short. If the Feds manage to rally spoos with their futures activity, there will be better entries in low or mid 1400-s. The credit market is broken, so... betting on da bottom is now dangerous.