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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (74911)	2/19/2008 3:21:01 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

As of today's close I am putting all my money fund assets into treasury only funds. I can't shake the feeling that more than a few money funds are going to break the buck before long.

To: mishedlo who wrote (74911)	2/19/2008 4:23:29 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, I've concluded the inversion in the yields of the 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year T-Bills is a function of near term inflationary expectations rather than Fed Funds expectations. Here's the Treasury Department Yield Curve: ustreas.gov Basically what this appears to be telling us is commodities are expected to peak in a about a month, along with inflation. The blow-off we're seeing in commidities is reminiscent of the blow-off after the Jan. 2000 correction in the NDX that led to the bubble peak in March 2000 on that index. The 1-year rate probably reflects the "true" rate, while the shorter term bills appear to have an inflation premium priced in.