Odds against Clinton grow longer and longer
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By STEVE KRASKE
The Kansas City Star
Posted on Wed, Feb. 20, 2008
Is it over?
With Barack Obama reeling off 10 straight victories over Hillary Clinton, including two Tuesday night, experts Wednesday were saying the end may be near in the marathon Democratic presidential contest.
“I put Clinton’s chances at reversing the momentum and somehow pulling it out at 20 percent, which obviously means Obama is a very clear favorite now,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.
Despite a tight delegate count, many Democrats now say she must sweep March 4 contests in Texas and Ohio or party leaders will begin to declare the race over.
“If she loses by any margin (in Texas and Ohio), I think it’ll be very difficult for her to continue,” said Bruce Buchanan, a University of Texas at Austin political scientist.
Former President Bill Clinton put it this way Wednesday in a speech to his wife’s supporters in Beaumont, Texas: “If she wins in Texas and Ohio, I think she’ll be the nominee.” But he added: “If you don’t deliver for her, I don’t think she can be.”
It’s not just that Obama has won 10 in a row, from Virginia to Washington state: He’s won by some margins that far exceeded expectations, and places where turnout stunned local officials.
And since Super Tuesday, he’s added a potentially decisive twist: cutting into Clinton’s base. He’s attracting women and low-income voters who had been unusually loyal to the senator from New York. On Wednesday, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (1.4 million members) endorsed him, a sign he continues siphoning her core constituencies — this time, organized labor.
Tuesday in the Wisconsin primary, they even split the female vote. In the past, Clinton had enjoyed a cushion among women voters.
Among Wisconsin men, Obama won by more than 2 to 1 — 67-31 percent.
Low-income voters, those earning $15,000 to $30,000, had been on Clinton’s side in some early primaries, but went to Obama 52-46 percent in Wisconsin. In fact, Obama won each of the five income brackets surveyed.
“He is increasingly cutting into her base vote,” Sabato said.
Some Obama backers in Missouri sense the end already.
“She should consider withdrawing,” said longtime Democratic activist and Obama backer Woody Overton.
The race, technically and mathematically, remains a production in progress. Obama leads the delegate race 1,351-1,262, a count including superdelegates. Texas and Ohio loom.
Those two delegate-heavy states, and a third in Pennsylvania on April 22, remain Clinton-friendly, according to polls and Clinton campaign officials. They offer Clinton a chance to regain lost momentum.
In Ohio, for example, Clinton leads by an average of 53-38 percent in three polls taken this month. In Texas, recent polls indicate she’s ahead by an average of 51-43.
But a CNN poll completed Sunday had Obama trailing by just 2 points, 50-48 percent, in Texas.
At Hunter College in New York on Wednesday, Clinton again dismissed Obama as big on talk, short on accomplishment.
“It’s time to get real about how we actually win this election,” she said. “It’s time that we move from good words to good works, from sound bites to sound solutions. … This campaign goes on!”
Her campaign noted that 16 contests are yet to be held, and 819 delegates remain at stake, enough for her to make up what is even now a small gap.
“That’s not a huge number when you think of the number of delegates who have been elected,” said Clinton aide Harold Ickes.
Democrats award delegates in most states proportionately, meaning neither Obama nor Clinton will likely head into the Democratic National Convention with the 2,025 delegates needed for nomination.
“The race is not over because nobody is going to finish the primary season with the 2,025,” said Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University in Des Moines.
With his front-runner status firmly affixed, Obama could begin facing new media scrutiny over his positions and Senate votes, Ickes said.
But delegate counts may not be the key factor as the race hits its next crucial phase. Clinton is facing growing pressure to snap Obama’s win streak. And party leaders face growing pressure to end the race before the national convention.
“It’s just a giant mess to have it play out in August,” Sabato said.
In the remaining days before the Ohio and Texas primaries, Clinton and Obama will meet in a pair of debates, including a CNN forum tonight in Austin. A gaffe by either candidate will receive heavy attention.
The time remaining before the March 4 contests and the debates “are what’s keeping this alive,” Buchanan said.
Even then, Clinton must lasso a bucking steer in Texas. There, she polls well among Hispanics as she does in other states. But Buchanan explained that fewer delegates are in play in several heavy Hispanic districts because voters there didn’t turn out in big numbers in recent elections. As a result, the party cut their delegate allotments. Voters in several African-American districts showed up in higher numbers, boosting their allotments, and that could give Obama an edge.
“For Hillary to take advantage of this alleged Hispanic edge, she has to win by huge margins to overcome the penalty imposed for low turnout,” Buchanan said.
Crawling back into the race will be a slog, Goldford said.
“There’s a weakness at the heart of her campaign that she just doesn’t capture people,” he said. “The campaign’s been sort of a soulless machine.” |
