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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (106054)	2/21/2008 8:31:26 PM
From: neolib	Respond to of 306849

SF, and desirable parts of silicon valley: down about 15% from absolute peak (if that) I think much of the Pacific Northwest has not fallen even that much (Portland, Seattle, and for that matter, Walla Walla near me). However, I would not assume that things are anywhere near the bottom, which I suspect won't be reached for another year or more. The USA built a lot of extra houses, and a lot of people bought house #2 (or worse) and the utility of those extra houses in a non-inflating real estate market has yet to sink in for many.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (106054)	2/22/2008 9:07:41 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

'What we have here in the Northern Ca area is: SF, and desirable parts of silicon valley: down about 15% from absolute peak (if that) Sacramento: down 50% Mountain House and other places in the middle of nowhere, down 80% yes thats right, 80%. the point being, we are in the middle of this, not the beginning. Many locales are crushed. At some point you have to accept that the majority of damage has been done.' I certainly am in that camp too. And you couldn't find a more negative industry insider than me 2-3 years ago. Yes the most desireable land constrained areas are the last to fall and will be going down for many more years to come but are now the exception than the rule with perhaps 90% of the country not in a bubble today. Time to let it go and move on. Or get in when everybody is getting out<g>

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (106054)	2/22/2008 12:23:40 PM
From: Peter V	Respond to of 306849

I don't believe we are out of the woods yet. There is a lot of junk to work through economically, as many on this thread have pointed out. If we enter a full blown recession, or are already in one, there is more pain to come, more job losses, more foreclosures, more BKs, etc. All of that is going to eventually bring down the more affluent areas. I view the housing market as a pyramid. Entry level buyers push the pyramid up from the bottom. As the bottom collapses, the top eventually comes down. It takes a lot of destruction at the bottom to remove a complete layer, so the effect on the top is delayed. This is an oversimplified analogy, but it is clear we are losing the entry level buyers and owners who allowed others to move up the pyramid. I believe that this will eventually have an effect on the more desirable neighborhoods. That's why I'm going to sell and rent for a bit, especially since Countrywide and Amgen are the largest employers in the area I'm moving to, and they are in some trouble.